Email of the day (4)
Comment of the Day

June 16 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (4)

On corruption in India:
"I was much distressed to hear a recent BBC broadcast about the level of corruption in India today. We were given examples at all levels of governance and officialdom down to a story that women who had just given birth were not allowed to hold their child until a bribe had been paid to the nurse. This is a country which maintains a huge military force, has a Space Programme, and to which the British Government for some reason still gives billions in aid. I am really beginning to wonder if I want to continue to hold shares (through the JPM Indian Fund) to support their economic miracle.

"Your comment, please."

David Fuller's view At Fullermoney, we often say for emphasis: Governance is everything. To elaborate, since all governments are characterised by varying degrees of corruption, investors perceptions regarding the trend of governance is crucial.

India has seen an increase in publicised corruption scandals over the last eight months. We have often commented on these, as you may recall, as have several other subscribers, including some in India. There is a silver lining in that corruption has to be exposed before it can be addressed. India's own media has led the way in this respect.

You may also recall me saying on numerous occasions, not least in Audios late last year, that the best time to take profits in Fullermoney themes or any other positions was when they were soaring up above their rising 200-day moving averages. I believe I mentioned India in this context last November or thereabouts.

As a long-term equity investor, I personally will never close any unleveraged investment position when capitulation selling is occurring. Do I think that India (weekly & daily) and JII (weekly & daily) will go lower before they move considerably higher? Yes, because a global correction is underway and growth economies such as India may not have completed their cycle of monetary tightening in an effort to reduce inflation.

Shortly after they reverse monetary policy and commence reducing interest rates, I expect these Fullermoney favourites to steady and resume their upward trajectories. This article from Bloomberg today - India Signals Slower Pace of Rate Rises on Global Economic Risks - may be of some assistance in your own assessment.



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