Email of the day (4)
Comment of the Day

October 01 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (4)

On gold and silver:
"Having lightened some gold and silver during the last up-leg I ask myself when and if to repurchase it. We can conclude that the answer to the "if" item is a strong "yes". The other answer is for me more complicated: around 1,800 and 35/36 do you think we can expect a pullback? Thank you for your enlightening thoughts."

David Fuller's view Well done for seizing your opportunities in these markets.

I feel that precious metals are performing broadly in line with expectations for a bull market that is resuming. Fortunately, this is also in line with what Fullermoney discussed during the support building phase from mid-May to mid-August.

Briefly, we saw decisive upward breaks which have now been followed by more choppy ranging action near psychological resistance levels. This is caused by more two-way action as many of us take some profits and also re-enter.

We have seen a big reaction in palladium, possibly as those bears with burnt fingers from their platinum shorts have shifted their short sales to the other precious metal used in catalytic converters. I think short sellers will lose money in palladium as well.

Gold and volatile silver have held up very well so far. I do not envisage a big pullback unless the S&P 500 rolls over in another correction of 10% to 15%. This is possible after a 4-month advance although it is not indicated at present since we have seen no more than some downward drift recently. Consequently, if trading precious metals futures, I would buy dips within the current ranges and lighten incrementally following new recovery highs. If we are talking about bullion funds, I would buy the dips and hold for higher levels which I expect to see before yearend and throughout most of 2013.

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