Email of the day
“ I have only just received a reply from Johnson Matthey to my inquiry about the historic platinum prices you wanted. Please see attachments for research resources.”
Eoin Treacy's view In Comment of the Day on November
9th I mused that since we did not have access to platinum prices spanning
the last major bull market in precious metals it was impossible to know whether
parity between platinum and gold was likely to continue to offer an area of
support for platinum. I sent out a couple of emails inquiring after long-term
data for and was delighted to receive Martin Spring's above email contributed
in the spirit of Empowerment Through Knowledge. Johnson Mathey's data allowed
me to draw two useful charts. One is a long-term overlay
of annual average gold and platinum prices, the other is a long-term ratio
of the two data sets.
The
platinum prices in these charts are annual average prices for 1946 to 2011.
I manufactured annual average prices for gold by taking a simple average of
monthly closing prices. It should be noted of course that these average annual
prices dispense with a great deal of intra-year trading activity.
This
long-term overlay charts highlights a major bull and bear market in platinum
while gold prices were still held static within the Bretton Woods agreement.
Platinum prices surged in the early 1960s and gave up much of the advance before
embarking on another advance more or less in line with the gold prices during
the 1970s.
Since
1974, average platinum/gold prices have broadly ranged between 1 and 2. This
trading range has held through both major bull and bear markets for the respective
metals. Therefore it is reasonable to suggest that the area of parity is more
likely than not to offer support for platinum relative to gold on an average
annual price basis.
In
nominal terms, the ratio has been trending lower for the last year and will
need to sustain a move back above 1 to indicate platinum is returning to relative
dominance.