Email of the day
Comment of the Day

January 11 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day

on Primark and Associated British Foods:
“Firstly let me wish you a very happy and prosperous new year to you and your families.

“Have only just got around to reading last night's email – so I am sure I won't be first with this, but Primark as mentioned in Eoin's first item, is not privately held, but owned by Associated British Foods - now ABF is 55% owned by the Weston family, so it's some way there,, but I am glad to say that Mrs D owns a fair chunk in her ISA and has done well compared to the FTSE over the years – although interestingly not that well compared to the sector – although I can't on a first look ascertain what proportion of that index is made up by ABF”

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for pointing this out and let me apologise for inadvertently misleading subscribers. Yes, Primark is a subsidiary of Associated British Foods. The FTSE-350 Food Producers and Processors Index is dominated by Unilever at 75%. Associated British Foods occupies 12.38% with Tate & Lyle at 9.06%. The Index has been consolidating mostly above the 2007 peak since 2010 and has held a progression of higher reaction lows for 18 months. A sustained move below 5250 would be required to begin to question medium-term scope for additional higher to lateral ranging.

Associated British Foods is a European dividend aristocrat and yields 2.18%. Retail and Sugar are its fastest growing sectors and more than half the company's revenues are sourced outside the UK. The share was among the best performers following the credit crisis but lost momentum following an acceleration in early 2011. It has held the majority of its earlier advance and bounced emphatically from the August low. A sustained move below 1050p would be required to check current scope for continued upside.

Tate & Lyle is a former European dividend aristocrat but still has an impressive track record of raising its dividends and yields 3.39%. The company now concentrates on food ingredients and the bulk of its revenue comes from North America. The share has bounced back impressively from the August lows and hit a new recovery high in December. While somewhat overbought in the short term, a sustained move back below the 200-day MA, currently near 630p, would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

In the US food processing and ingredients sector Conagra Foods rebounded impressively from the 2008 lows and has been consolidating mostly below $26 since early 2010. It hit a new recovery high this week and a sustained move below $25 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

JM Smucker found support in the region of the 200-day MA on successive occasions since early 2009 and recently rallied to retest the peak near $80. A clear downward dynamic, sustained for more than a week or two, would be required to check current potential for a successful upward break.

A high degree of commonality is evident across the global food processing and ingredients sector reflecting both higher demand and increased ability to pay for food from the developing middle classes primarily in Asia.

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