Email of the day
Comment of the Day

March 13 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day

On missed out on the stock market recovery:
"Is it too late for investors to join the bull market at this level? It started in March 2009, three years ago. It paused in the summer of 2011 and has roared on in 2012. Is it technically dangerous to come in now? This is a question from a European investor who has missed out because I was too pessimistic about Europe."

David Fuller's view I suspect many investors are in a similar position and there is a valuable lesson to be learned or relearned for the future:

We buy when there is 'blood in the streets' because we do not buy Europe or any individual country. Instead, we buy stocks which are cheap following a panic and a number of them have profitable global businesses.

As a subscriber, I think you already know my answer to your email if you have been reading Comment of the Day and listening to the Audios. However, I also know that some subscribers temporarily switch off if they disagree, and that is their prerogative.

I do not think that it is too late to join the bull market which is reasonably supported by valuations and the strong tailwind of accommodative monetary policy. The last few years have been stressful for everyone and although it may sound counter intuitive, that is usually a better environment for equity investors than an unsustainable boom.

Fullermoney described last year's stock market shakeout as a short, sharp cyclical bear market, as you probably recall. That was a partial reset in terms of valuations and commodity price inflation. We have also described this year's action as clear confirmation of a cyclical bull market, technically supported by bases which formed between August and October 2011.

Europe's stock markets were among those hardest hit by the Eurozone's sovereign debt and banking concerns. Consequently, there are still some bargains in Europe. For instance, today I bought the French pharmaceutical company Sanofi (SAN FP), which also has a US listing. It is a European Dividend Aristocrat, also an Autonomy with global revenue, a good chart pattern and yield of 4.5%. Eoin has reviewed Sanofi on a number of occasions, along with many other attractive shares throughout this recovery. (See also Eoin's latest list of in-form Asian Dividend Aristocrats below.)

If you want clear evidence that Mr Draghi's LTRO programme is working, look at this chart of the European Ted Spread (weekly10-yr & daily). Lastly, you will be familiar with the adage that 'bull markets climb a wall or worry'. When buying within what is clearly a bull market defined by an advance of over 20% from its low, we prefer to do so by purchasing shares that are well supported technically and coming into form, and also those leaders with consistent uptrends when prices approach their rising 200-day moving averages.

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