Email of the day
"After being a 'fence-sitter' for several months, I signed up to Fullermoney in December and am finding your service extremely useful.
"My question is about the best way to invest long term in the growth of agriculture. Short-term I have held (and will in the future hold) positions in grains / beans via ETFs, but I am looking for something broader than this for long term investment: i.e. a general fund or IT that invests in businesses that will support the growth of agriculture. One fund I have looked at is the Barings Global Agriculture Fund, but this is relatively new (and hence unproven) and the fees seem very high. Do you have any ideas for similar alternatives?
"By the way, regarding the FT articles debate: keep them in!
"Many thanks in advance and keep up the good work."
Eoin Treacy's view Welcome to the Service and thank you for your kind words.
Agriculture fits into Fullermoney's Supply Inelasticity Meets Rising Demand
theme since farmers are limited in how much they can grow by availability of
arable land, access to credit, the limited potential for another 'green
revolution' and often by weather. On the other side of the equation the
spending power of the growing global middle class continues to increase and
with it demand for more food and higher protein foods.
The agriculture
sector can be broken down into fertilizer and chemical companies, food producers
and food processors. Some fertilizer companies such as Yara International and
Agrium have benefitted from declining raw material prices and outperformed as
a result. A number of chemical companies have also benefitted from lower natural
gas prices. Potash related shares have lagged but remain sound recovery candidates.
(Also see Comment of the Day on March
16th)
Food
producers such as Viterra have been largely rangebound for the last 18 months
sharing the performance of grains and beans. Many food processors, Nestle and
Unilever among them, have benefitted enormously from lower raw material prices
and have been among some of the best performing shares globally over the last
year. (Also see Comment of the Day on February
19th).
The Baring
Global Agriculture Fund you mention invests in all three of these sectors
but as you point out, has high charges with an initial 5%, 1.5% management and
15% performances fees. It has rallied by approximately 66% in the last year
and remains in a relatively consistent uptrend. A break of the progression of
rising reaction lows, with a sustained move below 133p would be required to
question the consistency of the medium-term advance.
The Powershares
Global Agriculture Fund listed in the USA
and UK bottomed earlier than the Baring
fund and has outperformed in absolute terms. It remains in a consistent uptrend
and because it is an ETF, the charges will be considerably lower.
The Claymore Global Agriculture fund is
listed in Canada and in Canadian Dollars.
It continues to trend steadily higher and a break of the progression of higher
lows would be needed to check potential for continued higher to lateral ranging.
Personally, I am very wary of agriculture ETFs or ETCs that hold futures because
they make no provision for managing contangoes which can often be a significant
headwind to performance.