Email of the day
Comment of the Day

March 30 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day

on investing in agriculture
"After being a 'fence-sitter' for several months, I signed up to Fullermoney in December and am finding your service extremely useful.

"My question is about the best way to invest long term in the growth of agriculture. Short-term I have held (and will in the future hold) positions in grains / beans via ETFs, but I am looking for something broader than this for long term investment: i.e. a general fund or IT that invests in businesses that will support the growth of agriculture. One fund I have looked at is the Barings Global Agriculture Fund, but this is relatively new (and hence unproven) and the fees seem very high. Do you have any ideas for similar alternatives?

"By the way, regarding the FT articles debate: keep them in!

"Many thanks in advance and keep up the good work."

Eoin Treacy's view Welcome to the Service and thank you for your kind words. Agriculture fits into Fullermoney's Supply Inelasticity Meets Rising Demand theme since farmers are limited in how much they can grow by availability of arable land, access to credit, the limited potential for another 'green revolution' and often by weather. On the other side of the equation the spending power of the growing global middle class continues to increase and with it demand for more food and higher protein foods.

The agriculture sector can be broken down into fertilizer and chemical companies, food producers and food processors. Some fertilizer companies such as Yara International and Agrium have benefitted from declining raw material prices and outperformed as a result. A number of chemical companies have also benefitted from lower natural gas prices. Potash related shares have lagged but remain sound recovery candidates. (Also see Comment of the Day on March 16th)

Food producers such as Viterra have been largely rangebound for the last 18 months sharing the performance of grains and beans. Many food processors, Nestle and Unilever among them, have benefitted enormously from lower raw material prices and have been among some of the best performing shares globally over the last year. (Also see Comment of the Day on February 19th).

The Baring Global Agriculture Fund you mention invests in all three of these sectors but as you point out, has high charges with an initial 5%, 1.5% management and 15% performances fees. It has rallied by approximately 66% in the last year and remains in a relatively consistent uptrend. A break of the progression of rising reaction lows, with a sustained move below 133p would be required to question the consistency of the medium-term advance.

The Powershares Global Agriculture Fund listed in the USA and UK bottomed earlier than the Baring fund and has outperformed in absolute terms. It remains in a consistent uptrend and because it is an ETF, the charges will be considerably lower.

The Claymore Global Agriculture fund is listed in Canada and in Canadian Dollars. It continues to trend steadily higher and a break of the progression of higher lows would be needed to check potential for continued higher to lateral ranging.

Personally, I am very wary of agriculture ETFs or ETCs that hold futures because they make no provision for managing contangoes which can often be a significant headwind to performance.

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