Email of the day
Comment of the Day

March 23 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day

on Irish debt:
“I would be interested to hear your opinion on this article regarding Irish mortgage debt if you think its relevant here (may be too political)?

"Solution is a debt deal, which involves a suspension of all debt repayments on a proportion of our debt for a period of five or six years. This would allow us to get back on our feet without the constant haemorrhaging of cash. Such a solution makes total sense because this is what a company would do which has a decent underlying business but has a balance sheet which is being weighed down by too much debt. To preserve the company you tell the creditors to wait."

"A massive debt deal is the only solution. It is not if but when. The only choice is whether the deal should be such that it gives the thousands of mortgage navvies and mortgage widows a break and the chance to have a normal family life for the most important time in families when their children need to be reared."

“Personally I think that banks offering mortgages share a certain amount of risk and so in the current scenario of property over 60% in negative equity and earnings reduced a partial debt write-off may be reasonable. Further banks loose lending criteria contributed to over inflated prices in the first place.

“The government (taxpayers) are bailing out banks but not the country's people. Bankruptcy laws are strict (lasts 12 years) whereas in USA apparently you can put your keys in the letterbox and walk away!

“So far banks have facilitated temporary interest only payments on a case by case basis and mortgage interest relief has been increased slightly."

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for this topical email. How Ireland and other peripheral countries deal with their respective challenges will have an impact on European debt markets and so are worth monitoring. Ireland's central bank governor yesterday asked to delay the next interest payment on the promissory notes issued to fund Anglo Irish Bank's bailout. The ECB's response is likely to have a bearing on Ireland's vote in the upcoming fiscal referendum.

If we consider solutions to past debt crises, I have argued that at least two of three possible choices need to be adopted. The three alternatives are default, currency devaluation and reform.

In the 1980s a number of Latin American countries experienced debt crises. They chose to default and devalue their currencies. They subsequently struggled with regulatory reform until comparatively recently.

New Zealand offers another example. During its crisis of the 1970s and early 1980s, it chose to reform and devalue its currency. Debts were paid back in a substantially weaker NZ Dollar. Economic reforms put the country of a solid long-term growth trajectory.

At present, Eurozone countries are being asked to institute economic, fiscal and regulatory reform without recourse to either currency devaluation or debt forgiveness. I can't find another example of such a policy and believe the situation is untenable over the medium to long term. How successful various governments will be in continuing to foist successively more punitive bouts of austerity on their respective populations remains the big unanswered question, and not just in Ireland.

The Greek bailout 10 days ago stretched the maturity on much of its debt. It still faces enormous challenges and there is no clear growth strategy. This latter point could yet represent the failure of its bailout program. Depression with no end in sight is difficult to sell to any population.

Ireland is running a trade surplus, not least because of higher prices for its agricultural and pharmaceutical exports. However, it also needs to tackle is debt commitments. Siphoning off billions from the domestic economy to pay off foreign debts is doing nothing to solve the unemployment problem. Regulatory, economic and fiscal reforms are vital if a long-term growth trajectory is to be fostered. That is the only available method to restore competiveness versus core Eurozone countries. However, without substantive measures on the debt or currency front, unemployment and emigration are likely to remain prevalent themes for a lengthy period. Eurozone membership is non-negotiable so the only avenue is debt restructuring.

Negative equity is only a problem if you need to move. Therefore negative equity mortgages need to become much more widespread. Debt is a particular problem for the unemployed so everything must be done to counteract joblessness. If debts cannot be paid, what is gained by continuing to punish debtors? The proposed new bankruptcy laws, if implemented, would make substantial inroads to this front. Governments have very little room for manoeuvre within the strictures of austerity programs. Therefore they either need to negotiate or demand greater freedom because it is unlikely to be simply granted.

The ECB has signalled it will do what is necessary to support the Eurozone's banking sector. This is an important step. However, it has done nothing to tackle the problem of unrealistically stringent targets for debt repayment. These issues ensure that while the Eurozone crisis has probably lost its ability to shock the markets because liquidity provision is ample, the crisis is likely to rumble on for a number of more years.

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