Email of the day
Comment of the Day

April 16 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day

On Indonesia, (received last week)
"Indonesia's stock market reached an all time this week. Stay with it, or start looking for the exits? Your thoughts would be interesting, to say the least. Thanks!"

David Fuller's view Well done on having the foresight to invest in a top performing theme (weekly & daily). This indicates to me that you are more than qualified to address the question that you really should be answering yourself, based on your own investment or trading criteria. We try to answer emails of general interest but on this occasion I will add my thoughts. As a quid pro quo, I invite you to share with the Collective your reasons for choosing Indonesia and also the vehicle used for trading or investing in this market.

It would not be surprising to see a consolidation following a somewhat overstretched run, relative to the rising trend mean represented by the 200-day moving average. The proximity of the 2008 peak increases this possibility. You can also see a tail on last week's candle, indicating that the rally is encountering some resistance. My guess is that JCI is susceptible to a short-term reaction and consolidation but it would be premature to conclude that this relative strength leader is ending its cyclical bull trend. That would require some evidence of Type 1, 2 or 3 top formation development, as taught at The Chart Seminar.

Three other points: 1) I have often said that if subscribers are concerned about a position for any reason, it is better to sell on strength rather than following a correction within the overall upward trend; 2) from the perspective of a trader, I would be more tempted to take the profit or at least protect it with a tight stop which would probably be triggered; 3) from the perspective of a long-term investor, I would either do nothing or only lighten a bit, looking to buy back in the event of another reaction consistent with the others seen during this trend in terms of depth and tail ending, the latter indicating renewed demand.

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