Email of the day
"Could you please comment in this FT article about investments in European shares?"
David Fuller's view Thanks for the link; here is a PDF
version if some subscribers are unable to log on, and here is the opening:
US investors
have pumped more money into European equities than at any time since 1977 in
a big vote of confidence for the region and its ability to recover from the
sovereign debt crisis.
Pension
funds and other big US groups invested $65bn in European stocks in the first
six months of 2013, the highest in 36 years over that time period, according
to research compiled by Goldman Sachs' European strategy team from US Treasury
data.
Early
signs of economic recovery and rising business confidence have restored the
faith of US investors in Europe as hopes grow that markets can rally further
on a wave of stronger earnings in the second half of the year.
Eddie
Perkins, chief investment officer of international equity at Goldman Sachs Asset
Management, said: "The economic story makes Europe a good bet. We expect
European equities to keep rising as the continent recovers."
Robert
Parkes, equity strategist at HSBC, added: "We see earnings surprising on
the upside, which will act like a tailwind for European equities."
HSBC
says that European stocks are still 15 per cent undervalued compared with the
long-term average. This is the case despite the big rise in European equities
since July 2012 when Mario Draghi, European Central Bank president, pledged
to do "whatever it takes" to save the euro. European stocks have risen
27 per cent since June 4, 2012.
European
stocks have been cheap for some time, since multinational investors fled the
region en masse. However, the outlook for European indices, represented here
by the Euro Stoxx 50, has gradually
improved since the astute and diplomatic Mario Draghi succeeded Jean-Claude
Trichet as President of the European Central Bank on 1st November 2011.
This
year, we have heard considerably less about 'the imminent break-up of the euro'
- a view which Fullermoney never held. While I am surprised by the large $65bn
reinvestment in Europe attributed to "pension funds and other big groups",
in the FT's second paragraph above, they have been able to justify it on the
basis of valuations and diversification.
My preferred
positions in Europe would be among the region's global Autonomies periodically
reviewed by Eoin, because they offer global diversification. However, when European
equities are no longer undervalued, particularly those which are not Autonomies,
I would be more cautious because the eurozone remains a slow growth, semi-socialist
regi