"Some analysts are saying that this decline is very bearish for the global economy. I would welcome your comments on this."

David Fuller's view Some people continue to cite the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) as a lead indicator but I have long felt that it was too volatile to be a reliable indicator - leading or lagging - of global economic activity. This 10-year chart shows some evidence to support my view, I believe. I would rather look at stock markets, although they are also volatile, and GDP which lags but tends to move upwards in quite long-term trends, punctuated by some sharp setbacks.

Shipping shares may also be more revealing than the BDI. However they will show a mixed picture. For instance, there is little comfort from the USA's Dry Ships Inc, although Teekay Shipping Corp looks a lot better. Samples from Europe include Denmark's Maersk, while Taiwan's Yang Ming Marine Transport has soared recently. Dry Ships Inc excepted, which appears to be a special situatiion, I do not see the feared double dip recession in these share performances.