Polls (at least here) are to be taken with more than a pinch of salt because many are paid by the government to say this or that. 

The government propaganda machine has been trying to convince everybody Mr Scioli (the official candidate, Governor of Buenos Aires Province) is the clear winner. This is not true. He is probably quite a few points ahead of Mr Macri (Mayor of Buenos Aires city) but he will definitely have to fight for those few points he is still lacking.

In our strange electoral system, to have a clear winner next Sunday, the candidate has to reap 45% of votes or 40% and at least 10 points difference with the nearest candidate. If this doesn't happen, we go to a second round between the two most voted in November 22nd. 

The opposition is mainly and sadly divided between Mr Macri and Mr Massa -an ex mayor of an important suburb north of Buenos Aires-. For idiotic reasons they didn't team up when they should have and now they are competing for similar votes, with Macri a bit ahead of Massa, but in the end detracting from a common front that would have wiped out Mr Scioli in the first round.

Be assured there will be attempts at fraud since the differences are not wide and therefore a few votes could make much difference.

It doesn't look like Scioli has 45% so Macri's best bet is to get in second cutting the difference between him and Scioli to less than 10% (which is possible) and go to a second round. If that happens, there is a chance -mind you, only a chance, not an assurance- Macri could win.   
I don't want to bet, I'm just holding my breath.

Scioli is a cynic coupled with a fanatic (Mr Zannini, his vice-president). He might be a little less confrontational than Mrs Kirchner, but he belongs to the sick all powerful sect of Peronists who have systematically ruined this country. He has accepted all sorts of public humiliations just to be where he is now. Mr Zannini is a dangerous beast. He is the eminence grise behind Mrs Kirchner’s government, a curious mixture of seventies Maoism with Peronist ruthlessness producing a particularly provincial sort of backwardness, but very tough. More fit for an ideological zoo than to govern a country.

What will happen if this duo gets elected? I wouldn't be too optimistic. Too many people around the world are saying that the force of circumstances, reality, the markets, the desire of people to lead better lives, etc. etc. will force even them to come to terms with real life and start putting the house in order: closing a deal with holdouts, lifting the ban on foreign currency, taming inflation, scaling down social and energy subsidies, liberating the economy even if only marginally (nothing said about corruption, though). Maybe, but probably forced, underline forced, by circumstances, not by conviction. And forced means forced and these people abhor being forced.

If Macri gets elected it would mean a whiff of fresh air. He will tackle all of the above in a more reasonable way and -we hope- fight corruption, defend the independence of the judiciary, free press and more or less tack in the direction of a republic ruled by law and a bit of decency and common sense. Discounted Mrs Kirchner and her acolytes will try to block him in every possible way, even to the point of trying to set the country aflame but this would be no news since an important portion of the electorate is aware of the risk.

 

Eoin Treacy's view

At our meeting in Singapore at The Chart Seminar you were kind enough to share your views on the political outlook for Argentina and thank you for this illuminating and forthright account highlighting the reality on the ground. Governance really is everything but is especially important when deemed to be trending lower by so many people. A positive change could have a transformative effect but as you say it is a very fluid environment. 

This additional article from the BBC may also be interest not least because it strives not to insult any particular party.

The Argentine Peso official rate has been trending consistently lower for years but bears little relation to the “Blue Dollar” unofficial exchange rate which is closer to 15.9. or 67% lower than the official rate

The stock market inflated right along with the monetary base which helps to explain the nominal price acceleration in 2014. The fact the currency has continued to trend lower while the stock market has stopped appreciating suggests significant stress.