I am not a subscriber but CIO of a Trust Company in Japan. I suggest that you check the data on the 5 year CAPE. If you take the data off the Shiller website, you will find that the current 5 year CAPE is 23.97 rather than 27.85 and the historic average for the 5 year Cape is 15.83 (vs 10yr of 16.59). Stanberry's research shows an average of close to 25... but is probably only going back to 1990. So still 50% overvalued. Also if you are going to ignore 2009 data, you should probably ignore 2005 and 2006 data when earnings were inflated by the bubble. 

Eoin Treacy's view

Thank you for this informed contribution and commitment to our Empowerment Through Knowledge theme. The fact that we are having this conversation is an indication that investors are finding it increasingly difficult to find shares they consider cheap. However the more important point is that we do not have evidence of topping activity or a loss of momentum for the major indices. 

History does not look kindly on those who have said “This time is different” but there are considerations such as rapid technological innovation, globalisation, the persistency of extraordinary monetary policy and low energy prices that are contributing to the situation as it currently stands. It is reasonable to opine that the market will continue to advance until these factors have been fully priced in. This does not mean we should be complacent but that the consistency of trends is more important than ever to monitor.