Regarding the price chart for corn: I have been watching this with interest for a few months after seeing that for at least the past 4 years there have been relatively large price movements in June/July. Not knowing much about corn, presumably this is related to crop information? With the price ranging in quite a tight pattern for 2 years now I wonder if you have any thoughts as to what this could indicate for the coming month or two. Thanks

Eoin Treacy's view

Thank you for this question which may be of interest to subscribers. The majority of US corn is planted in April and May so by June and July farmers have a reasonable idea of how the crop is coming along but it is heavily dependent on just the right amount of rain around this time of year to support rather than damage the crop. There are also a number of major USDA reports that come out in June/July that give some insight into stockpiles, exports and crop health which tend to have an effect on price. The below chart of the spread between the 1st and 2nd month continuation charts illustrates the wide spreads that tend to develop at this time of the year not least as old crop is about to be substituted by new crop.

Corn prices cleared the $4 area last week and a sustained move below that level would be required to question potential for additional upside.