Thank you for this extensive overview of the rates and currencies situation, which deservedly so need our full attention.

I will add to the “puzzle of what to make of all this" 4 further concerning facts

1 The evidence of constant decline in the global trade, referenced by a flow chart from the Dutch Central bank, I sent to David sometimes ago.

2 The concern of extensive froth in the supposedly growth of earnings supported by ever extended buybacks and ever extended gap (pun intended) between GAAP vs non GAAP while revenues are still stalling. This may be a strong argument for repatriation of $ to support balance sheets, but as any action begets a reaction, please see No 4

3 The leverage everywhere at levels that may not be healthy in this volatile environment.

4 And what could concern mostly everyone is the growing scarcity and consequently cost of US$ :

Eoin Treacy's view

The world needs a growth spurt to help mitigate the issues with leverage and unimpressive lopsided expansions that have resulted from quantitative easing which you highlight above. Without growth in GDP and earnings, the inevitable conclusion to a period of expanding multiples is either a bubble or at least a period of heightened volatility.

This chart of US corporate profits was supposed to be updated by Bloomberg on the 27th but I guess they are running a little late. If it breaks upwards over the coming quarters that would suggest the lengthy period of consolidation which has given rise to fears the expansion is over would have been overly pessimistic.

From a near-term perspective, there is no denying that the Trump administration is following through on a number of the campaign promises made, not least on the immigration front, and that holds out the prospect they may also deliver on deregulation, low taxes and fiscal stimulus. All of these hoped for outcomes require a great deal of legislative work rather than simply signing executive orders so it remains to be seen what will in fact be delivered.