Hello I’ve noted that high level luxury looks pretty bad, but medium level luxury have interesting graphs. Tods Safilo and Luxottica seem to be basing, Tods is high quality but not flashy for example 

Piquadro has stopped going down IT0004240443

Ferragamo I can’t figure out the graph yet but it is to watch as well 

Yoox looks bad to me, the site is awful compared to mytheresa.com 

LVMh has broken out too it seems 

I’m asking because I thought that with the dollar so strong , Asians would lower consumption, buy maybe they are buying less Prada and more sober brands I haven’t figured it out yet I read Dolce and Gabbana are going badly 

?Saluti!

Eoin Treacy's view

Thank you for this thoughtful email and I think it is the right time to be looking at some of Italy’s exporters rather than focusing on the melodrama of politics which is likely to remain tortuous for the foreseeable future. A weaker Euro, or even the remote near-term possibility of a new Florin, both represent bullish potential outcomes for nominal Italian share prices.  

Xi Jinping made conspicuous shows for wealth a political hazard when he took office and that represented a headwind for premier luxury goods brands. A point you made at The Chart Seminar was whether this might have been a positive outcome from mid-tier understated luxury. That makes intuitive sense to me since China’s wealthy will not eschew quality just because bloggers are trying their utmost to picture high profile Party cadres in high priced baubles they are not supposed to be able to afford. 



LVMH. Kering and Hermes among the French brands have all moved to new highs suggesting that the era of Chinese reticence may be ending.  

UK listed Burberry, whose beige palette goes well with Asian complexions, at least according to Mrs. Treacy, has broken its medium-term downtrend and I was quietly surprised how heavily it was advertising while in London for the Chart Seminar last month. 

Mulberry is much less liquid but has been conspicuously quiet as it trends steadily higher. 

Ferragamo is trading towards the lower side of a nearly four-year range. Technical traders will be aware of an inverse head and shoulders pattern developing over the last year while a sustained move above $23 would confirm a return to demand dominance beyond the short term. 

I agree TODs breakout from a six-month base last week is notable. 


Among Swiss brands Compagnie Financiere Richemont AG and Swatch appear to have broken medium-term downtrends. 

There are a number of notable laggards in the Luxury Goods section of the Chart Library suggesting this is still a market of clear winners and losers.