Would be interested to know whether - using your behavioral chart analysis approach - it is possible to even begin to predict how low iron ore prices might go 

Eoin Treacy's view

Thank you for a topical question. Estimating how high or low prices might move can only begin with the understanding that any conclusion is at best a guess. Regardless of what method one uses no one definitively knows at what level prices will find support. What behavioural technical analysis will help with is analysing the price action so that you will be able to recognise a bottom when you see it. 

“A consistent trend is a trend in motion” has been an adage at The Chart Seminar for decades. Provided the trend remains consistent we can conclude that it will proceed as it has been doing. Let’s look at iron-ore prices and ask whether the trend is consistent?

The multi-year uptrend peaked with a Type-2 top in 2011 and the action since then has been particularly volatile albeit with a downward bias. Iron-ore prices have trended consistently lower since late December 2013. Let’s describe the trend over the last year as if to a blind person.

This downtrend is characterised by:
A progression of lower rally highs.
A progression of lower lows.
Each of the reactions is one below another to create a step sequence downtrend. 
There have been three consolidations within the downtrend of $16, $9 and $7 and the length of time spent ranging is getting shorter. 
This is a symptom of the fact that the trend has been getting more orderly as the decline has persisted.  

Is there any evidence of a trend ending?

The trend might yet accelerate which would represent climactic activity but there is no evidence yet that meaningful support has been found. 

What would that look like?

A rally of a least $9 is the minimum requirement. It will then need to post a higher reaction low to demonstrate demand is returning at a progressively higher level. From a medium-term perspective, it will need to trade back above the 200-day MA to demonstrate stability.

Can we look at commonality for any additional clues?

Energy is a major consideration in the cost of producing and transporting iron-ore. Falling oil prices are reducing the cost of production suggesting that higher cost marginal supply will take longer to exit the market  

Considering how many new considerations have been applied to the market with oil’s fall, the potential for some potentially lengthy ranging following the eventual low is quite high.