Did you see this?

If you add also the EU's move to tax harmonisation which would damage Ireland's competitive advantage then an eventual Irexit does not seem outlandish.

 

Eoin Treacy's view

Thank you for this article which may be of interest to other subscribers. This link to a similar article in the Irish Times contains more quotes from the original report and concludes that a recent poll suggests 88% of Irish favour remaining in the EU. 

Ireland joined the EEC because the UK was doing so. The UK is Ireland’s largest trading partner by far and agriculture continues to represent a significant employment sector both directly and indirectly. Despite the size of Ireland’s coastline, Irish fisheries are a much more important sector for Spain than they ever have been for Ireland. 

The larger point is 1 in 5 people are employed either directly or indirectly by foreign owned multi nationals who are in Ireland because of the low corporate tax rate, English speaking educated workforce and access to the EU and UK. More than any other factor tax harmonisation represents an existential threat to Ireland’s privileged position as one of the most successful destinations for foreign direct investment. 

The Brexit question represents an undeniable challenge for Ireland because the potential loss of free trade with the UK is going to have an effect regardless of what else happens. The only way I can envisage Ireland deciding to leave the EU is after the UK leaves and if the country’s sovereign tax strategy comes under threat. Even then it would require a political revolution to shake the pro-EU mindset of the currency parliament. 

CRH (cement), Ryanair (airlines), Kerry Group (food ingredients) and Paddy Power Betfair (gambling) represent 64% of the Index with Bank of Ireland in fifth place. At the peak in 2008 the financial sector alone represented over 80% of the Index. 

The ISEQ Index has held a progression of higher reaction lows since mid-2016 and has paused over the last couple of months near 7000. A sustained move below the trend mean would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.