Empty Offices Loom in Sydney as Building Spree Meets Bank Cuts
Comment of the Day

November 13 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Empty Offices Loom in Sydney as Building Spree Meets Bank Cuts

This article by Nichola Saminather for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
The expansion will push vacancies above 12 percent by late 2016, which would be the highest since at least 1999, from about 9 percent now, Zurich-based UBS estimates. Sydney, which accounts for about 65 percent of the nation's financial activity, is bearing the brunt of job cuts at banks amid a global economic slowdown and ebbing mining deals at home. Macquarie cut about 1,625 jobs, or 11 percent of its staff, in the year to September, and Westpac Banking Corp. reduced its workforce by 2,035 positions, or 5 percent, in the same period.

“The financial-services sector is slowing and they're a key occupant of offices,” said Daniel Ekins, who oversees $1.75 billion as managing director for Asia-Pacific region securities at Deutsche Bank AG's RREEF real estate unit. “Rental rates are unlikely to grow significantly and vacancy rates are likely to increase.”

Eoin Treacy's view The Australian property market avoided a major decline not least because of a lack of excess supply which was a contributing factor to crashes in the USA, Ireland and Spain. As new supply reaches the market from 2015 there is real potential that it will overwhelm demand, at least temporarily.

The S&P/ASX 200 Property Trust (REIT) Index (5.41%) experienced a steep decline from the 2007 peak and has been forming a base since early 2009. The Index hit a new three-year high in October, having held a progression of higher reaction lows for more than a year. It encountered resistance two weeks ago, in the region of 1000, and is currently pulling back to test the progression of higher lows. It will need to find support in the region of 950 if the trend is to remain consistent.

Goodman Group (4.39%) has paused in the region of A$4.50 and will need to sustain a break above that level to reaffirm the medium-term uptrend. GPT Group (5.63%), ING Office (6.22%) and CFS Retail Property Trust (6.9%) have all posted new three-month lows in the last week and are now testing their respective 200-day MAs. They will need to find support in this area if medium-term potential for additional higher to lateral ranging is to be given the benefit of the doubt.

In the banking sector ANZ (8.61%), Commonwealth Bank of Australia (8.12%) and Westpac (9.56%) have all encountered resistance in the last week and look susceptible to mean reversion.

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