EURECAproject Hellenic Recovery Fund -a solution for Greece and Europe
Comment of the Day

September 30 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

EURECAproject Hellenic Recovery Fund -a solution for Greece and Europe

Thanks to a subscriber for this interesting report from Roland Berger Strategy Consultants. Here is a section:
1.Bundle Greek state assets worth EUR 125 bn in a central trustee organization (holding company)

2.Sell entire holding company to European Union for EUR 125 bn

3.Allow Greek state to use proceeds to repurchase bonds from ECB and EFSF

4.In so doing, reduce Greek debt from 145% to 88% of GDP

5.Reduce ECB's and taxpayers' exposure to Greek debt to zero

6.Invest EUR 20 bn in restructuring assets to maximize value of privatization (plus EUR 40-60 bn)

7.Add 8% GDP stimulus to Greek economy as side-effect of restructuring program

8.Drive growth swing from -5% to +5%, producing additional tax revenue equivalent to 4% of GDP

9.Cut interest burden by more than 50% thanks to debt reduction and rating improvements

10.Combine (8) and (9) to enable debt repayment worth 1% of GDP p.a., leading to a debt ratio that is clearly within the 60% debt ceiling of the Maastricht criteria.

11.Payout of any surplus to Greece in 2025 to fund additional debt reduction -Any shortfall should be covered by Greece provided the required sum does not exceed 30% of GDP (i.e. no more than EUR 150 bn by 2025/26)

12.Side-effect 1: CDS spreads will collapse, causing speculators to incur losses and preventing attacks on Ireland, Portugal and Spain

13.Side-effect 2: 100% privatization of Greek public sector will stamp out corruption and foster long-term growth and investment

14.Side-effect 3: Greek banks holding Greek bonds will see value gain of EUR 30 bn, restoring solvency of banking system and reducing collateral risk for ECB by 95%, thereby ending Greece's credit supply crisis

15.Safe non-default repurchasing option on Greek bonds could also be implemented as an option

Eoin Treacy's view Opinions towards the Eurozone sovereign and financial debt crisis have become polarised over the last few weeks. Increasingly apocalyptic views are being expressed by one cohort while the other appears to be "spitballing" ideas for how this crisis may be resolved. The above is an example of the latter.

Greek spreads hit at least a near-term peak earlier this month and posted a lower high on the 23rd. A sustained move above 2200 basis points would be required to reassert the uptrends. A move below 1900 would suggest a downtrend is unfolding.

Irish spreads on the other hand continue to decline and a sustained move above 750 basis points would be required to question current scope for additional compression.

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