Euro Declines for Third Day Versus Dollar, Yen as Growth Slows
Comment of the Day

February 12 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Euro Declines for Third Day Versus Dollar, Yen as Growth Slows

This article by Ron Harui and Paul Dobson for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section
The euro fell for a third day against the dollar and the yen on speculation that Europe's recovery from last year's recession is slowing.

The euro weakened to its lowest level in almost nine months against the U.S. currency on concern a European Union plan to assist Greece that leaders detailed in a statement yesterday will fall short in helping the nation tackle its fiscal deficit.

A report showed the euro region's economic recovery slowed more than forecast in the fourth quarter last year. The yen rose against higher-yielding currencies after China's central bank said it will raise banks' reserve requirements.

"The statement yesterday bought the euro zone some time but unless something is done soon, downside pressure on the euro will persist," said Geoffrey Yu, a currency strategist at UBS AG in London. The GDP data will "give euro zone leaders an even greater incentive to get Greece sorted," he said.

Eoin Treacy's view The debt burden of a number of EU countries continues to weigh on sentiment towards the single currency. For hard pressed manufacturers in the Eurozone this is likely being welcomed and should help ease some of the burden on the region's weaker economies. On a trade-weighted basis, the Euro Index continues to extend the medium-term downtrend and an upward dynamic would be required to check momentum beyond a brief pause. (Also see Comment of the Day on January 15th).

The Euro continues to deteriorate against the US Dollar, with a progression of lower rally highs. A sustained move back above $1.385 would now be required to question scope for further lower to lateral ranging.

Against the Yen, the Euro continues to extend the decline below ¥130 and a sustained move back above ¥125 would be required to question potential for additional downside.

Against a comparatively strong currency such as the Canadian Dollar, the Euro is accelerating lower and requires an upward dynamic to check momentum beyond a brief pause.

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