Euro Getting Cheaper Buoys Export-Driven Rebound
Comment of the Day

May 28 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Euro Getting Cheaper Buoys Export-Driven Rebound

This article by Vernon Silver and this one "America as Export Juggernaut Led by Intel With Surge in Chips" by Timothy R. Homan and Anthony Feld for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section from the former
"The advantage of the euro drop is it will continue to support the recovery," says Challier, who is betting that Spanish, Portuguese and Italian government bonds will rise. German exports and Spanish and Greek vacations become cheaper for Americans and Asians, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its July issue. The benefit is especially significant if the euro is depressed a year or more, he says.

The fiscal discipline that comes as a condition of the rescue package will also benefit European economies after the initial pain of government spending cuts and tax increases, says Christoph Kind, head of asset allocation at Frankfurt Trust, which manages about $17 billion.

There are some precedents. South Korea and Indonesia flourished after the Asian currency crisis of the late 1990s ushered in budgetary restraints and financial reforms, Kind says.

"Hopefully history repeats itself, and these austerity packages lead to substantial improvement here," he says.

Eoin Treacy's view The material benefits for companies consolidating foreign earnings back into a weak Euro are significant. Not only are their products more competitive in the global market, but increased sales get transferred back into a weak domestic currency further boosting earnings. Both the USA and UK benefitted from the relative weakness of their currencies from the March 2009 lows and Eurozone exporters will now be benefitting in the same way. Likewise, a significantly weaker Yen is probably needed to act as a catalyst for Japan's export sector. (Also see David's piece in Comment of the Day on May 25th and my piece on May 21st)

Back to top