European Financial Stability Fund Bond spreads (EFSF)
Eoin Treacy's view
European Financial Stability Fund Bond spreads (EFSF)
- The EFSF was heralded as the answer to the Eurozone's debt crisis when
it was first mooted. However, following its slow passage through multiple parliaments
and the size of the problem relative to the capital allocated, there have been
increased calls for additional funds, more leverage and quantitative easing.
The result
has been that the original 10-year bond
issued in June has languished along with peripheral debt. Spreads
over German bunds have risen in tandem with those of other Eurozone countries
and there is little sign that this trend has ended.
(Please
note there is only one EFSF bond and no generic yield. Therefore I can only
import the price into the Chart Library. The above spread is of prices rather
than yield so it is quoted the other way around. While the shape of the spread
is correct the scale does not reflect basis points.)
The European crisis has been developing since at least 2008 and is rapidly coming
to at least a partial conclusion. (Also see Comment of the Day on August
12th 2008 and January
19th 2009). The EFSF should yet prove to be a valuable tool in helping stabilise
the Eurozone's sovereign debt markets. However, the current issues will have
to be worked through first and at present bond vigilantes are demanding substantive
action by the EU/ECB/IMF to allay fears of a further deterioration in credit
conditions and an exit by at least one country from the union.