European shares
Eoin Treacy's view Following what can conservatively be described as a trying few months for European
shares, I thought it would be timely to attempt to identify companies that have
a reasonable dividend and the potential to keep paying it.
The
Stoxx 600 Index yields 3.84% so I conducted
a Bloomberg search for constituent shares with a dividend yield of more than
4%. In an effort to filter out those whose yields have been unduly flattered
by the recent decline I made a cash dividend cover ratio of greater than 1 an
additional requirement. The results
were quite educative because of the 56 qualifying shares only 10 were from the
Eurozone while 45 are listed in the UK.
BBVA
is one of the more interesting because it is the only bank in the Eurozone that
generates more revenue from outside the EU than from inside it. (Also see Comment
of the Day on January
10th). The share currently has an indicated gross yield of 5.27% but has
been aggressively cutting its pay-out and diluting its shares over the last
couple of years. It found at least short-term support in the region of the 2009
low last month and has since rallied to almost completely close the oversold
condition relative to the 200-day MA. A sustained move above the MA will be
required to signal a return to demand dominance beyond the short term.
The
performances of Vinci (4.8%) from the
construction sector, CRH (4.13%) from
the cement sector, Royal Dutch Shell
(5.21%) and Total Fina (6.42%) from the
oil sector are all heavily influenced by perceptions of global growth potential.
They all pulled back sharply over the last few months and found at least short-term
support in June. They would need to sustain moves below their respective June
lows to question medium-term scope for additional higher to lateral ranging.
I
last reviewed European utilities in Comment of the Day on June
15th. The UK sector has been a relative outperformer. Both National
Grid and Drax Group appear in the
above list. While not in the above list RWE,
E.ON, GDF
Suez, Enel Green Power, Acciona,
Gas Natural and Fortum
all found at least short-term support in June and sustained moves below those
respective lows would be required to check potential for an additional unwind
of short-term oversold conditions.
The
European Telecoms sector also exhibits a wide disparity between the performance
of Eurozone and non-Eurozone domiciled companies. BT
Group, Vodafone and SwissCom
retain positions of relative outperformance. (Also see Comment of the Day on
May 3rd. However, Telecom Italia,
Portugal Telecom, Deutsche
Telekom, France Telecom, KPN,
Telekom Austria, Belgacom
and Telefonica have all found at least
short-term support and clear downward dynamics would be required to check potential
for a further unwind of oversold conditions relative to their respective 200-day
MAs.
The
ramifications of the decision to form a Eurozone banking union are still being
sifted through. The initial response from markets has been positive, and while
nothing was mentioned about a grand plan for further fiscal cohesion, what has
been decided can be viewed as a solid first step in that direction. The belief
that the Eurozone project will persist has been bolstered. This suggests that
companies essential to the smooth operation of the Eurozone economy, which have
been beaten down, now have potential to at least unwind their respective short-term
oversold conditions.