Eurozone manufacturing powers ahead
Comment of the Day

April 22 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Eurozone manufacturing powers ahead

This article by Ralph Atkins for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section
Eurozone manufacturers are expanding production at the highest pace for a decade, according to a closely watched survey that shows industry reaping the benefits of the euro's Greece-related slide.

April's purchasing managers' surveys showed the 16-country zone's recovery firmly on track. Growth is being powered by manufacturing companies, which are benefiting from a strong pick-up in demand from emerging economies as well as the weaker currency.

German manufacturers expanded production this month at the fastest since the survey began in 1996. But growth in the eurozone service sector also accelerated.

The results highlight the silver lining to the crisis over Greece's public finances, which has fuelled fears about the stability of Europe's 11-year-old monetary union. Since early December, the euro has fallen about 8 per cent on trade-weighted basis.

Eoin Treacy's view The Euro Trade Weighted Index remains in a relatively consistent six-month downtrend and reasserted it today with a move to a new reaction low. The Index bounced in the region of 130 in March 2009, but an upward dynamic would be required for this offer anything other than a temporary area of support on this occasion. A sustained move back above 132 would now be required to begin to question potential for further downside.

The weakness of the Euro is indeed the silver lining to the Greek crisis and should flatter the consolidated earning of the Eurozone manufacturing sector over the next few quarters provided the Euro continues to weaken. Country indices most heavily weighted by major exporters leveraged to growth in the global economy remain more likely to outperform their Eurozone counterparts in the current environment.

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