Exxon Mobil Corporation Announces 2009 Reserves Replacement
Comment of the Day

February 17 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Exxon Mobil Corporation Announces 2009 Reserves Replacement

Thanks to a subscriber for this interesting press release from Exxon Mobil. Here is a section:
The corporation's reserves additions in 2009, the highest in the decade, reflect new developments with significant funding commitments as well as revisions and extensions of existing fields resulting from drilling, studies and analysis of reservoir performance. Reserves additions from the Papua New Guinea LNG project and the Gorgon Jansz LNG project in Australia totaled almost one billion oil equivalent barrels. Proved additions were also made in many other countries including Canada, the United States, Angola and Norway.

At year-end 2009, ExxonMobil's proved reserves base, utilizing the corporation's definition of year-end reserves, increased to 23.3 billion oil-equivalent barrels, split approximately evenly between liquids and gas (51 percent liquids, 49 percent gas). The 2009 proved developed reserves add of 2.9 billion oil-equivalent barrels was also the highest in the decade driven by the successful startup of a number of significant projects. This increased the portion of proved reserves already developed to 67 percent.

Eoin Treacy's view This statement highlights the continued difficulty experienced by large private sector oil companies in gaining privileged access to major new oil discoveries. Brazil will be developing its large offshore resources itself with only limited participation by other companies and elsewhere nationalisation has been a persistent trend throughout oil's bull market.

The fact that natural gas now constitutes 49% of Exxon's reserves is an indication of where the company's future growth might come from, although they will face stiff competition outside the USA. As a result, Exxon Mobil is likely to be even less leveraged to potential upside for the oil price. The share remains a laggard and broke its progression of incrementally higher lows in January. A sustained move above $70 is now required to question scope for continued lower to lateral ranging.

Liquified Natural Gas infrastructure continues to come online and points towards this resource taking on a greater role in energy policy in future. Natural gas prices have historically been influenced by the North American market but this is beginning to change. LNG shipments are now being actively arbitraged between destinations in order to achieve the best price. Given the continued growth in the LNG market, it appears likely that this segment will contribute more to future moves in the pricing of the US traded natural gas contract.

Natural Gas remains in a relatively consistent medium-term uptrend. The current congestion area trading range is similar to that posted between October and mid-December. A sustained move below $4.70 would be required to trigger an MDL stop, break through the now ascending moving average and challenge the consistency of the advance.

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