Fed's cheap cash lifts US out of spring swoon
David Fuller's view Irwin
Stelzer thinks the consensus from US economists on GDP growth mentioned in the
paragraph immediately above is probably more accurate than the IMF's current
views, and I am inclined to agree with him, provided we have seen the extent
of President Obama's tax increases. This remains to be seen.
Eurozone
countries are popular tourist destinations, and justifiably so. However, the
cost of doing business in Europe remains punitive. This is the key reason why
Europe's GDP has lagged for so long and it is likely to impede growth until
policies change. Meanwhile, Europe's stock markets are doing somewhat better
because Mario Draghi at the ECB is keeping rates low in an effort to encourage
some recovery. He may not be printing money, unlike Mr Bernanke's Fed, but he
is certainly willing to lend and government bond rates continue to range lower,
as you can see from these 10-year government bond charts for Italy
and Spain.
In comparison,
US government 10-Year bond yields
are even lower. More importantly, the US economy remains more dynamic despite
President Obama's tax hikes. Crucially, shale gas and oil gives the USA a huge
energy advantage relative to Europe. This is attracting energy intensive manufacturers
back to the States. The US also has the most corporate Autonomies and these
are mainly prospering in global markets. Europe has fewer successful Autonomies
and the majority of these are from Germany, France and the UK. These factors
are reflected by the USA's better stock market performance relative to Europe.