FedEx Corp. and United Parcel Service Inc., two bellwethers of the U.S. economy, are signaling durability of a global recovery powered by growth overseas rather than demand at home.

Both freight companies raised profit forecasts in recent days on the strength of cross-border shipments, especially from Asia, reflecting confidence in trade flows even as the European debt crisis threatens to weaken global demand.

While rising international deliveries suggest that a "double-dip" recession is unlikely for the global economy, they reinforce forecasts for export-driven growth amid a lengthy period of unemployment around 9 percent in the U.S. The reliance on foreign demand bolsters a theory espoused by Pacific Investment Management Co. that the world's largest economy is in a "new normal" phase of slow growth.

"The international marketplace is what's driving growth at FedEx and UPS and any other big company that has international exposure right now," said David Campbell, an analyst at Thompson Davis & Co. in Richmond, Virginia. He recommends buying shares of both FedEx and UPS.

FedEx, based in Memphis, and UPS are considered gauges of economic strength or weakness because they move consumer goods and business equipment from electronics to apparel and financial documents.

The two companies also raised their earnings forecasts earlier this year. The last time they previously raised earnings forecasts in tandem, in July 2005 and September 2005, the U.S. economy experienced sustained growth of 3 percent for the following year.

Eoin Treacy's view This article by Eric Heymann for Deutsche Bank focusing on air transport may also be of interest. The transport sector has been among some of the better performers since late 2008 led by companies such as Union Pacific Railroad which remain in consistent uptrends.

The Dow Jones Transports Average found support in the region of 4000 earlier this month, sustaining the medium-term progression of higher reaction lows and has since rallied quite impressively. It is somewhat overbought in the very short term but a sustained move back below 4000 would be required to question scope for further upside.

FedEx broke its progression of rising major reaction lows in June but has since found support in the region of $70 and rallied back above the 200-day MA. While technical damage has been done, the strength of the current rally broke the short-term sequence of lower rally highs and indicates shorts are being covered. A decline back below $73.50 would be required to limit scope for further upside.

UPS had become overextended relative to the 200-day MA when it encountered resistance in the region of $70 from April. However, although the subsequent pullback has been violent, it held the progression of rising major reaction lows and is rallying once more. A sustained move below $60 would now be required to hinder potential for some further upside.

While both FedEx and UPS have experienced some technical deterioration, the fact that they have raised estimates is a positive for the wider economy. However this is not the only bullish signal from the sector. US railroads continue to outperform. European companies such as Scania, Vopak and Wartsila continue to hit new highs and Continental also broke upwards to new recovery highs this month.

These charts, as well as the positive attitude of the infrastructure sector covered in the above piece, indicate that companies leveraged to growth in global trade are doing very well indeed, which significantly reduces the likelihood that the global economy is going to slip back into recession.