Fluor Project Backlog May Set Record on Energy Work
Fluor is comfortable accumulating cash as it seeks acquisition targets to complement its construction portfolio, such as more capabilities for deepwater work, according to Seaton, 48, who took the COO job in November.
"Our mining group basically ran the table," Seaton said of the unit's growth while oil-and-gas work flagged. The large projects booked in the second quarter probably won't continue to flow in, and probably will be followed by smaller jobs such as work at copper and iron-ore mines, he said.
Energy companies will resume building facilities such as refineries, mostly in Asia and Russia, Seaton said. The projects also will be smaller than those constructed in the U.S. before the slump, and will likely be in the range of $200 million, he said.
Fluor has a "huge" project in Iraq in the West Qurna field, where the company will be the first to build infrastructure for oil production, Seaton said.
"It really puts us as the premier go-to engineering and construction company for the other companies to use," Seaton said. Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc signed a contract with Iraq in January to increase daily production at West Qurna almost tenfold to 2.33 million barrels.
Should Fluor's backlog reach a record, it would do so in the face of "a very cautious marketplace," Seaton said.
"We're still going to have a great year at a time when oil and gas is down from where it was," he said. "We're at an inflection point on oil and gas."
Eoin Treacy's view
Investors have so far been slow to see value in Fluor's impressive order book
and sound balance sheet, presumably because it intends to spend some of its
cash on making acquisitions while prices for the sector are still comparatively
low. The majority of shares in the sector remain in base formations, with most
of the early relative strength leaders failing to sustain initial upside breaks
and have pulling back to extend their Type-3, as taught at The
Chart Seminar, bottoms, . This leaves a cash rich, low debt company like
Fluor with a number of potential targets. This is a list
of 17 US companies in the same or similar sectors that could be potential targets.
Also see Comment of the Day on November
27th 2008 and January
5th 2009.
Fluor
found support near $30 from October 2008 and has been ranging above $40 for
more than a year, with resistance encountered between $55 and $60. It is currently
rallying from the lower side of the range and a sustained move below $40 would
be required to question scope for further upside.
Jacobs
Engineering is one of Fluor's larger competitors and remains in a relatively
well defined base. It is also rallying from the lower side and a sustained move
below $36 would be required to question potential for further higher to lateral
ranging.
URS
has also begun to rally from the lower side of its yearlong range. Quanta
Services has held above its 200-day MA for the three months and would need
to sustain a move below $20 to question scope for some further higher to lateral
ranging.
McDermitt
International more than tripled from its 2008 low before entering the current
yearlong range between $20 and $30. It also recently found support at the lower
side of the consolidation and a move above $30 held for more than a week or
two would confirm demand has regained medium-term dominance.
Shaw
Group remains in a relatively gradual medium-term uptrend and has sustained
a progression of higher major reaction lows since bottoming in November 2008.
These would need to be broken to question scope for further higher to lateral
ranging.
Astec
Industries is involved in just about every area of road construction and is
considerably smaller than the above companies. It failed to sustain the breakout
from its base in April but found support in the region of the higher side and
last week's upward dynamic broke the short-term progression of lower highs and
put prices back above the psychological $30 level. A sustained move back below
$28 would now be required to question scope for some further upside.
Both
Granite Construction and Sterling
Construction have returned to test their 2008 lows. Both are somewhat overextended
relative to their 200-day MA's so there is scope for a reversionary rally. However,
at a minimum they would need to break the three-month progression of lower rally
highs and sustain moves back into their overhead ranges to indicate demand is
returning to dominance beyond a relief rally.