Food and drink exports up 12%
Comment of the Day

January 11 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Food and drink exports up 12%

This article by Suzanne Lynch for The Irish Times may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section
The record rise in exports was driven by high commodity prices on world markets. Agricultural commodity prices reached record levels in 2011, with the FAO food price index recording growth of 26 per cent during the first 11 months of the year.

However, while the increase was driven primarily by value, growth in the volume of product sold was also a factor, with volume accounting for 25 per cent of the rise in food and drink exports.

The dairy and meat sectors were the strongest performing categories, both representing about €2.6 billion or 30 per cent of total food and drink exports. Prepared foods accounted for €1.5 billion, or 17 per cent of sales, with seafood accounting for €440 million or 4.5 per cent.

“The meat and dairy sectors account for almost two-thirds of total food and drink exports, and indications that breeding herds are expanding, combined with the lifting of milk quotas from 2015, will underpin export growth into the future” said chief executive Aidan Cotter.

Eoin Treacy's view The Irish stock market index was dominated by the financial sector prior to the crash. If memory serves me correctly, the weighting of financials was in excess of 70% in 2006. Today that figure is less than 5% and Bank of Ireland looks likely to be the only one of the major banks to avoid nationalisation. Building materials (27.02%), Food (19.02%) and Airlines (12.9%) now dominate the Index.

CRH moved its main listing to the UK in December and was added to the FTSE-100. This helped support the recent rally from the lower side of its more than 3-year base. It has held a progression of higher reaction lows since September and is now challenging the 18-month downtrend. A sustained move below €13.85 would be required to question potential for continued higher to lateral ranging. While representing the largest weighting, building materials companies are unlikely to represent the best candidates to lead a recovery. Food processing and ingredients companies are much more likely to occupy that position.

Kerry Group is a European dividend aristocrat, yields 1.04% and is focused on foods and food ingredients. The share has a similar pattern to Associated British Foods above and has rallied back to test the highs near €30. A sustained move above that level would reaffirm the medium-term uptrend. Swiss/Irish baked goods company, Aryzta and has a similar pattern but pulled back sharply today to test the MA. Dairy / nutrition focused Glanbia has also returned to test its recovery peak.

In the airlines sector, Ryanair has rallied to test the upper side of its 18-month range. It is somewhat overbought in the short term, but a sustained move below $3.60 would be required to question potential for some additional higher to lateral ranging.

Longer-term, the financial sector is unlikely to have a significant impact on the performance of the Irish stock market. The building materials sector faces a low growth environment in the Irish and British markets and appears to be in the process of forming a base. Just how long base formation takes remains an open question. The export sector will be key to stock market performance. While Ireland is known for low corporate taxes and success in attracting FDI, almost none of the companies investing in Ireland are listed on its stock market. Successful domestic businesses have been focused in the airline and food sectors. Foods appear to be on a more solid growth trajectory.


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