Footwear Update: Still going strong in athletic categories
We continue to see strength in running, although Y/Y increases appear to be moderating from high-double digits to mid to high singles. The lightweight / minimalist trend that has been going strong for over a year now persists, and we don't see any weakness so far with related sales currently running 2x last year's volumes. However, we are seeing classic / traditional running shoes softening a bit, bringing comp increases down into the high-single-digit range, while cross-training sales comps remain in the low teens. Athletic brands continue to post solid gains (NKE trading at new highs), which parlays to the retailers that carry branded performance gear such as Foot Locker (FL) and Finish Line (FINL). We also see continued traction with a growing trend of popularity in "outdoor" categories, which we believe will continue to deliver a tailwind to vendors and retailers with solid exposure such as Wolverine Worldwide (WWW) through Merrell, Patagonia,etc. We continue to monitor developments at Timberland (VFC), as VF crafts a robust game plan for its recent acquisition without abandoning Timberland's social conscience. The latest development is collaboration with Ringo Starr on "canvas that cares" which will fund non-profit organizations through the auction of limited-edition footwear.
Eoin Treacy's view Shoes
and clothes are often viewed as status symbols and reflect a personal sense
of style and fashion. Most brands are at the relatively affordable end of the
price range, compared to cars, homes and bags and so can also reflect an aspiration
to be considered modern and sophisticated. Shoes and clothes are some of the
first items people invest in when they begin their upward progression into the
middle classes and therefore reflect the growth of the global consumer.
Nike
is the largest footwear and sportswear manufacturer and remains a leader in
the sector. The company has a solid record of increasing dividends and currently
yields 1.58%. Emerging Markets and Greater
China represent its two fastest growing business units. The share is currently
unwinding a short-term overbought condition and has almost completely reverted
towards the mean. A sustained move below $85 would be required to question medium-term
upside potential.
VF
Corp (Nautica, Lee, Wrangler, Kipling, North Face etc) is a dividend aristocrat
and yields 2.25%. The share had become
quite overbought when it encountered resistance in the region of $140 four weeks
ago and appears to be in the process of reverting towards the mean. A sustained
move below $110 would be required to begin to question the consistency of the
medium-term uptrend.
PVH
Corp (Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger, Van Heusen, DKNY etc.) has not increased
its dividend since 2001 and currently yields 0.23%. Its business appears be
growing across most of its units. The
share has been largely rangebound, albeit with a mild upward bias, since early
2010. It has pulled back again, having hit a new high, and is currently mid
range. Prices will need to sustain a move above $70 to offset Type-3 top formation
characteristics.
Limited
Brands (Victoria's Secret, La Senza) does not report geographical revenue
data. The company as a solid record of increasing dividends and has made a number
of special payouts over the last few years. The indicated yield, excluding such
items, is 2.12%. The share has been trending consistently since early 2009,
finding support in the region of the 200-day MA on successive occasions. It
is currently approaching the MA and an upward dynamic would be required to indicate
the return of demand in that area.
Under
Armour exhibits an impressive growth
trajectory and has a similar pattern to Nike above. Deckers
Outdoor Corp also has similar characteristics.