Foreign Banks Double Dollar Deposits at Fed
Foreign bank deposits at the Federal Reserve have more than doubled to $715 billion from $350 billion since the end of 2010 amid Europe's debt turmoil, buttressing the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency.
Forty-seven non-U.S. banks held balances of more than $1 billion at the New York Fed as of Sept. 30, up from 22 at the end of 2010, according to a survey of 80 financial institutions by ICAP Plc, the world's largest inter-dealer broker. The dollar has appreciated 7.2 percent since Standard & Poor's cut the nation's AAA credit rating Aug. 5, the second-best performance after the yen among developed-nation peers, according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Currency Indexes.
A budget deficit of more than $1 trillion, a deadlock among Congressional supercommittee members on spending cuts and 9 percent unemployment haven't deterred investors from seeking safety in the world's biggest economy. The euro has been undermined by the region's sovereign debt crisis, while the Swiss franc and yen have fallen as their governments buy billions of dollars to weaken them.
"There's not anything close to a substitute and part of it is the deepness of the market, the liquidity," Jack McIntyre, a fund manager who oversees $23 billion in debt at Brandywine Global Investment Management, a unit of Legg Mason Inc., said Nov. 15 in a telephone interview from Philadelphia. "There's a perception, right or wrong, that we're going to make good on all of our assets."
David Fuller's view Overall, the US
dollar remains a suspect currency due to the USA's increasing deficit, slow
economic growth, interest rates near zero and most of all, the increasing supply
of greenbacks created by the US Federal Reserve.
Nevertheless,
when global investors take fright, the dollar regains its appeal and is traditionally
regarded as a highly liquid 'safe haven'. Unquestionably, there is no more liquid
currency than the US dollar and safety is a relative concept in the eye of the
beholder.
Currently,
investors are understandably alarmed by Europe's sovereign debt and banking
crisis which has much of the region in recession. Fiscal union is not created
overnight, although for 'needs must' reasons it is probably occurring faster
than most people expected, considering that it was not even on the official
agenda until a few months ago.
Europe's
problems remain, arguably, a greater concern than the USA's budget deficit and
Congressional 'Supercommittee' stalemate. Additionally, there have been a sufficient
number of bearish stories from China and India in recent months for investors
to pull some capital out of the region, in temporary preference for US dollar
assets.
How does
this look technically?
EUR/USD
(weekly & daily)
remains rangebound overall but with a clear downward bias. Consequently a move
above $1.39 is required to offset current scope for additional sideways to lower
trading.
GBP/USD
(weekly & daily)
is also rangebound overall but with a downward bias at present. An upward dynamic
is required to reaffirm support from the Dec 2010 to Jan 2011 and Sep-Oct lows
evident in the $1.54 region.
USD/SGD
(weekly & daily)
broke a long downtrend in dramatic style in September. It retraced nearly two-thirds
of that move in October but is rallying steadily towards the early-October high
near S$1.32. It is beginning to appear overstretched once again but a downward
dynamic is required to check current upside momentum as the year's high is approached.
Asian
Dollar Index (weekly & daily)
saw its biggest decline in two and a half years during September. It then regained
over half of that move in October before encountering resistance from the 200-day
MA. The current, persistent fall is beginning to appear overextended as it approaches
the September low near 114 but an upward dynamic will be required to indicate
more than temporary support near that level.