Franc Rises Most Since March on Speculation SNB Allowing Gain
Comment of the Day

May 06 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Franc Rises Most Since March on Speculation SNB Allowing Gain

This article by Paul Dobson for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section
The Swiss franc climbed the most in more than a month against the euro on speculation the Swiss National Bank relaxed efforts to curb the currency's advance.

"It's obvious that the SNB has been in the market recently," said Marcus Hettinger, a foreign-exchange analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG in Zurich. "It could be that it is now accepting a new level versus the euro, which could be around 1.42. But it still seems to be a managed exchange rate."

The Swiss franc appreciated as much as 0.8 percent to 1.4212 per euro in the biggest intraday advance since March 18, before trading at 1.4228 at 11:47 a.m. in London, compared with 1.4327 yesterday.

Eoin Treacy's view Currency markets have been remarkably volatile over the last few weeks; stemming from the continued concerns about the integrity of the Eurozone. The Swiss franc offers some clear examples of this volatility; weakening against a newly resurgent US dollar and Yen but strengthening against the Euro and Pound.

The US Dollar found support near parity in November having last tested that level in March 2008. It continues to post a progression of rising reaction lows but became somewhat overextended relative to the 200-day moving average in the last few days and appears to have encountered at least short-term resistance in the region CHF1.12. However, a sustained move back below CHF1.09 would be required to mark an inconsistency, a pull back into the previous range, and signal that demand for the franc is beginning to return to dominance.

The Yen has been ranging mostly above CHF1.1 since June, but broke upwards this evening. The Franc recouped part of the loss but a downward dynamic would be required to question scope for some additional upside.

The Euro continues to extend its downtrend against the Swiss Franc. It is becoming increasingly overextended relative to the 200-day moving average but an upward dynamic would be required to signal renewed Euro demand.

The Pound encountered resistance in the region CHF1.7 on a number occasions since November and posted an emphatic key day reversal just below that level today. A countermanding upward dynamic would be required to question potential for some further lower to lateral ranging.

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