France Takes Market Pulse at Bond Sale as AAA Decision Looms
Comment of the Day

January 05 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

France Takes Market Pulse at Bond Sale as AAA Decision Looms

This article by Mark Deen and Paul Dobson for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
France's woes, like those of other euro-area countries, are compounded by an economy that's edging toward recession as budget cuts to contain the fiscal crisis bite.

The French economy is probably already in a recession that will last through March, national statistics office Insee said last month. The European Commission reduced the region's 2012 growth forecast by more than half to 0.5 percent in November.

The euro has for the first time in a decade recorded two consecutive annual losses against the dollar.

France has the biggest debt burden of the six top-rated euro nations, at 85 percent of gross domestic product. After Italy, it has the most amount of debt coming due this year in Europe at $367 billion, followed by Germany at $285 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Governments of the world's leading economies have more than $7.6 trillion of debt maturing this year, with most facing a rise in borrowing costs.

Eoin Treacy's view The market's response to the ECB's 3-year loans last week was tepid at best. The need for a wholesale recapitalisation of the banking sector remains pressing and the ECB's solution appears to have been perceived as a stop-gap measure rather than a satisfactory long-term solution. The Dow Jones Euro Stoxx Banks Index has been ranging in the region of the 2009 lows since September, in a gradual process of mean reversion. It pulled back rather sharply today and a sustained move above 120 will be required to question the medium-term supply dominated environment.

Spreads of various troubled Eurozone sovereign bond yields over German Bunds continue to reflect investor anxiety. Greek spreads have paused above 3300 basis points. Portuguese spreads are pushing back up towards their peak near 1200 basis points. Irish spreads remains steady in the region of 600 basis points. Italian spreads hit a new peak above 500 basis points yesterday. Spanish spreads continue to hold the progression of higher reaction lows and will need to sustain a move below 325 basis points to question upside potential. Belgian spreads found support above 200 basis points and will need to sustain a move below that level to check potential for some additional upside. French spreads have rebounded to test the November peak near 150 basis points and a downward dynamic will be required to check potential for some additional upside.

Since Draghi took over at the helm of the ECB, he has cut interest rates twice, lowered collateral rules and increased the amount the liquidity available to the banking sector. These were all necessary steps. Nothing has happened to doubt his commitment to further intervention. Widening sovereign spreads and continued weakness in the banking sector make additional measures more likely.

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