Garnet Harrison's Just a thought
I was delighted when Garnet Harrison (a friend for many years) told me recently that he was "launching a blog." Fullermoney is pleased to post this inaugural commentary because I have long regarded Garnet as an experienced and wise observer of the international financial scene. Here is the opening:
• All countries/regions have problems. In my view those in Europe are more threatening and have the greatest potential to disrupt the global economy. They are self-inflicted.
• There is commentary about a crisis of capitalism. In my opinion we are witnessing the crisis & hopefully the demise of social democracy.
• For a generation most governments in Europe have pursued policies which have resulted in public expenditure rising faster than the growth in GDP. (There have been exceptions, notably Margaret The Great!). As a result we have witnessed a continuing rise in the level of public debt as a proportion of national GDP.
• This has been facilitated firstly by the decline in interest rates since 1982, made available to periphery economies as a result of joining the Euro and currently supported by the various forms of QE.
• Secondly governments have had willing partners in the major banks whose skills are best exemplified by their need for state rescues. As an aside I have often suggested that the answer to the inadequate capitalisation of the banks is the "Tyndall" solution, convert the banks' bonds to equity and compensate the shareholders with warrants.
• The symbiotic relationship between banks and governments is best illustrated by the ECB expanding its balance sheet to enable Italian banks to lend money to the Italian State so that it can repay German banks.
David Fuller's view Garnet Harrison is not afraid of controversy - a trait that he shares with some of our other independent contributors, and I think most subscribers will be interested in his other pithy comments. Fullermoney favours a robust discussion of the major issues which affect our investment world.
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