German DAX Equity review
Eoin Treacy's view
German DAX Equity review - There has been a great
deal of commentary on the malaise affecting European economies but this is to
ignore massive regional differences across the Eurozone. Some of the currency
union's biggest problems stem from the divergence in competitiveness that sees
low inflation, low relative cost of production, high efficiency economies led
by Germany dominate, Higher inflation, higher cost of production and less efficient
economies mostly on the periphery are at a comparative disadvantage without
the pressure release valve of devaluing their respective currencies or the discipline
inherited from generations of fighting inflation. The differences between the
respective economies are mirrored in the stock market, where Northern European
indices are outperforming.
A large
number of German large cap companies are benefitting from the weaker Euro, renewed
demand for their products particularly in Asia and the low interest rate environment
at home. (Also see David's piece on July
13th).
An obvious pattern emerges following a click through the shares in the DAX-30.
The best performing shares are focused in the consumer led export sectors. Banks,
steel, cement, insurance, utilities and telecoms are underperforming.
A large
number of companies remain in relatively consistent uptrends. Of these Siemens,
Man AG and Infineon
Technologies are in some of the more consistent step sequence advances.
Fresenius Medical Care has been even
more impressive on the upside.
BMW
continues to post new recovery highs, while Daimler
also remains in a consistent medium-term uptrend. Adidas,
BASF, Fresenius
AG, Henkel, Linde
and SAP all share a similar pattern of
consistently higher reaction lows which would need to be taken out to question
the integrity of their medium-term uptrends.