Asked whether hundreds of thousands of refugees in Turkey would head to Europe if the EU did not grant Turks visa freedom from October, Cavusoglu told Bild: "I don't want to talk about the worst case scenario - talks with the EU are continuing but it's clear that we either apply all treaties at the same time or we put them all aside."

Visa-free access to the EU - the main reward for Ankara's collaboration in choking off an influx of migrants into Europe - has been subject to delays due to a dispute over Turkish anti-terrorism legislation, as well as the post-coup crackdown.

Brussels wants Turkey to soften the anti-terrorism law.Ankara says it cannot do so, given multiple security threats which include Islamic State militants in neighboring Syria and Kurdish militants in Turkey's mainly Kurdish southeast.

European Commissioner Guenther Oettinger has said he does not see the EU granting Turks visa-free travel this year due to Ankara's crackdown, which has included the round-up of more than 35,000 over alleged involvement in the coup.

Cavusoglu said the migration deal with the EU stipulated that all Turks would get visa freedom in October, adding: "It can't be that we implement everything that is good for the EU but that Turkey gets nothing in return."

Eoin Treacy's view

It is a bit disingenuous of Turkey to say they get nothing in return when the EU is paying a multi-billion euro stipend to contain migrants in Turkey, instead of having to deal with them within the borderless EU. However the Turkish administration is understandably on edge and feeling defensive following the foiled coup and is probably looking for a win, internationally, to bolster confidence in its ability to govern successfully. 
 
Viewed from Turkey’s perspective the Europeans are probably getting what they deserve. I suspect few people remember Turkey called for the UN Security Council to set up safe zones within Syria as early as 2012, on the back of what it saw as a humanitarian crisis. The USA was not about to get involved in another Middle Eastern war and neither Russia or China saw their interests best served by following such a strategy, so the conflict escalated and millions more people have been displaced. Little wonder then the Turkish administration feels embattled and is seeking comparative advantage. That does nothing to absolve Erdogan of increasingly tyrannical crackdowns but it does help to give those of looking from the outside some perspective. 

This article “How Global Elites Forsake Their Countrymen” by Peggy Noonan for the Wall Street Journal on the 11th was kindly send in by a subcsriber and may also be of interest.  It discusses the wide gap between the intellectual aspirations of ruling elites with the reality endured by the citizenry they claim to represent. The reason I am keeping such a close eye on these stories is because it represents a clear risk to the ability of Eurozone stock market to continue to rally. 

However we wish to rationalise it, the fact is Middle Eastern and African refugees are colonising Europe. That is not a politically correct statement but the ramifications will not be lost on voters who bear the burden of supporting them. The potential for political turmoil to affect European markets is non-trivial and has already contributed to volatility over the last couple of years. In Italy Renzi has to call a referendum on reforming the Senate by the end of the year which could lead to an election. In Germany Angela Merkel has been in power since 2005 but faces an election next year. France has a presidential election in March or April 2017. The Netherlands has a general election around the same time. Austria, Sweden and Hungry have elections in 2018.

All of that suggests there is scope for volatility in European indices from later this year. In the meantime equity markets are responding to monetary stimulus and the prospect of future fiscal stimulus. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is currently testing the region of the trend mean. It will need to sustain a move above it to break the more than yearlong progression of lower rally highs and signal a return to demand dominance beyond short-term steadying.