Global chart review
David Fuller's view Ted
Spread - This short-term increase
shows that banks are now more wary of lending to each other than during the
previous correction which ended in early February. However, this is currently
far from the crisis-signalling levels
that were building up from mid-2007.
OIS
- The chart
for 3-month Overnight Indexed Swaps shows a similar change to the Ted Spread.
USA's
S&P 500 Diversified Financials (S5DIVF) are underperforming
and tested their May 6th
low yesterday. A close back above 340 is required to reaffirm support near
the February low but a breach of that lower level for more than a day or two
would confirm additional deterioration.
Euroland's
Euro STOXX Bank Index (SX7E) has been dragged down
by the Southern European banks and needs to hold above this month's earlier
low near 167 to stem the bearish
outlook.
UK's
FTSE 350 Bank Index (F3BANK) remains rangebound
but must hold above the February low
near 4300 to avoid potentially significant pattern deterioration.
France's
CAC 40 (CAC) plunged beneath its
MA and also the February low before steadying from the upper-side of its base
formation. It needs to hold above its May 7th low
to avoid a further test of underlying trading. Conversely, a move back above
3800 is required to indicate a potentially significant downside failure and
to regain the earlier upward bias.
Switzerland's
SMI has seen less technical damage
than CAC but the correction following mid-April's upside failure is considerably
larger than others during the previous recovery - a characteristic shared by
many other stock market indices. Consequently it now needs to remain above lateral
trading near 6200 and push back over 6600 to revive the improve the technical
outlook.
Denmark's
KFX (weekly & daily)
and Sweden's OMX (weekly & daily)
remain among Europe's stronger indices but here too bigger and faster corrections
than seen previously, including a weekly key reversal for KFX, have broken the
previously ranging uptrend consistency. Here also the May 7th plunge lows need
to hold, followed by eventual moves to new highs to reaffirm the uptrends.
Australia's
AS51 (weekly & daily)
is barely steady near the February and May 7th lows and a close above 4665 is
required to question the current downside bias. The AS51FIN is very similar
(weekly & daily)
and requires a close above 4690 to remove pressure from the range lows.
Hong
Kong's HSI (weekly & daily)
is pressuring the February low just beneath the psychological 20,000 level and
the MA is also losing upside momentum. An upward dynamic is the minimum required
to check this decline beyond a brief pause and to reaffirm support near current
levels.
This
review will continue tomorrow.