Global Growth Glimmers as Manufacturing Picks Up Speed
China's manufacturing grew at the fastest pace in two years and euro-area services and factory output shrank less than economists forecast in surveys for January, adding to signs of resilience in the global economy.
A euro-area composite index based on responses from purchasing managers in both industries rose to 48.2 from 47.2 in December, London-based Markit Economics said today. Economists forecast a reading of 47.5, according to the median of 22 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Markit's factory survey in China was at 51.9, up from 51.5 in December.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi suggested this week that the worst of the debt crisis may be over, while investor confidence in Germany, Europe's largest economy, rose to the highest in 2 1/2 years. That optimism and the prospect of China keeping up its growth pace are encouraging economists even after the International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for global expansion and Spain's unemployment reached a record.
Eoin Treacy's view Apple
is grabbing headlines at present because its growth has slowed due to increased
competition and higher costs. The share's weighting, particularly in the Nasdaq,
ensures that it has a long reach in terms of its effect on sentiment but it
is by no means the only company reporting earnings at this time and the outperformance
of the manufacturing and industrials sector more generally is particularly notable.
3M
reported improving demand in its consumer sector while Xerox beat expectations.
As we have pointed out on a number of occasions since the summer, a high degree
of commonality is evident in the industrials sector and it has moved to a position
of outperformance relative to the wider market. At this stage I thought it might
be instructive to revisit some of the relevant shares. (Also see Comment of
the Day on November
16th) .
Among
industrially oriented S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats 3M
(2.37%) found support in the region of the 200-day MA from November and has
rallied impressively to post new all-time highs. While somewhat overbought in
the very short term, a sustained move below the MA, currently near $90, would
be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.
Leggett Platt (3.87%) broke out of an
18-month range in October and is swiftly approaching its 2005 peak near $30.
While some consolidation of recent powerful gains is looking increasingly likely,
a sustained move below $27 would be required to question medium-term upside
potential.
Genuine Parts (2.96%) has been ranging
mostly above $60 for a year and has returned to test the upper boundary. A sustained
move below the 200-day MA, currently near $62.50 would be required to question
medium-term scope for additional upside.
Dover Corp (1.98%) has rallied for 14
of the last 15 weeks and is approaching an area of potential resistance near
the upper side of its 2-year range. Some consolidation of recent gains is looking
increasingly likely.
Illinois
Tool Works (2.28%) hit a new all-time high in October and spent the next
few months consolidating in the $60 area. It broke out again three weeks ago
and a sustained move below $60 would be required to check medium-term upside
potential.
Outside
of the S&P500 Dividend Aristocrats, General
Electric (3.17%) continues to range above $20 and a sustained move below
that area would be required to question recovery potential.
Honeywell
(2.22%) continues to extend its breakout to new all-time highs and while it
is becoming somewhat overbought in the short term, a clear downward dynamic
will be required to check momentum beyond a brief pause.
Berkshire
Hathaway broke successfully above $90 at the beginning of the month and
it is becoming increasingly overbought as it approaches the 2007 peak near the
psychological $100. . Nevertheless it is well underpinned by the three-year
congestion area and a sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near $87
would be required to question medium-term upside potential.
Eaton
Corp ((2.65%) has paused in the region of the 2011 highs over the last month
in a gradual reversion towards the mean. A sustained move below the 200-day
MA, currently near $48.90, would be required to question medium-term upside
potential.
Ingersoll
Rand (1.25%) is also in the region of a potential area of resistance but
a break in the medium-term progression of higher reaction lows would be required
to question potential for continued upside.
Parker
Hannifin (1.73%) broke successfully above $30 last week and a clear downward
dynamic would be required to check medium-term upside potential.
Cooper
Industries (1.53%) is in the process of forming a downside weekly key reversal
suggesting a peak of at least near-term significance has been reached. It will
need to hold above the $70 region on the current pullback is the benefit of
the doubt is to continue to be given to the medium-term upside.
Flowserve
(0.93%) has rallied particularly impressively over the last six months but is
more than 25% overextended relative to the 200-day MA and susceptible to mean
reversion.
Roper
Industries 0.49%) continues to trend consistently higher having held a progression
of higher reaction lows since 2011. While somewhat overbought in the short-term,
a sustained move below the MA would be required to question medium-term upside
potential. The share would be best bought following one of its periodic pullbacks.
Textron
0.28%) has rallied to test the upper side of its more than two-year base and
a sustained move above $30 would confirm a return to medium-term demand dominance.
When
the above shares are considered, a considerable number have promising medium-term
upside potential as they complete lengthy consolidations. However short-term
overbought conditions are increasingly evident and the risk of some consolidation
has increased. As the S&P500 tests the psychological 1500 area and with
the VIX Index at its lowest reading since 2007 the first clear downward dynamics
are likely to signal peaks of at least short-term significance.