This means the 2023 El Niño is elevating global average temperatures from a higher starting point, making it easier to set records.

This is like a basketball player playing on a court with a steadily higher floor, making it easier to dunk the basketball.

This may be why 2023 has already seen record ocean temperatures surpassing 2016’s numbers, and why this trend may be here to stay throughout the duration of the projected El Niño.

What they're saying: "2023 is off to an alarming start, even before El Niño conditions fully develop later this year," Kim Cobb, a climate scientist at Brown University, told Axios via email. She noted that even a moderate El Niño is likely to lead to a new global temperature record.

"Given the current pace of warming, however, even a new record will likely be surpassed in a matter of years. The planet is warming so fast now, even a natural cycle as strong as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is beginning to be lost in the noise," Cobb said.

Eoin Treacy's view

El Nino weather events generally cause droughts in Asia and excess moisture events in the Americas. That’s not great news when soft commodity prices are already at elevated levels and the global supply chain for key food commodities is impacted by the war in Ukraine.
Cocoa prices have now broken out to new 7-year highs. Combined with the widening backwardation, that’s a meaningful move suggesting demand dominance beyond the short-term.
Robusta coffee has hit a new post reformulation peak this week. We may see some consolidation of recent gains but the trend remains higher.

Sugar is firming in the region of the upper side of a 10-year range.

Soybeans rebounded in a dynamic manner from the region of the 1000-day MA.
Corn's front month contract is also firming.

Wheat is beginning to steady in the region of the upper side of the base formation.