Global Thematic Investors: The New Leviathans
My thanks to the erudite Iain Little and Bruce Albrecht for this outstanding issue of their GTI Quarterly Letter to Shareholders. Here is a brief sample:
We're living in a period in history when modern nation states, centralized money-munching machines invented in the 19th and 20th centuries to democratize ailing monarchies, are mired in crisis.
Crisis, because they are overwhelmed by debt (Greece and the Garlic Belt), because their working populations are ageing (Japan), because the entitlement-burdens of welfare states have spun out of control (UK), or because their political classes (France and Germany) have run out of answers to the new GTI world including China, India, and Latinoland.
This is no time to invest in the debt of ruptured and discredited states. Yet their debt now trades at a 30 year high in terms of price (thus, a 30 year low in terms of yield). And here's the wonderful news; autonomies pay out a multiple of the yield of government bonds, and that yield is growing.
The only way staggering states can balance red-tinted books is by taxing us more, or turning themselves into nimble-footed growth tigers once again (fat chance). Investors should beware these modern nation states. Grievously wounded as they are, they haven't lost their reptilian instinct for survival; tax, or inflate, they will.
David Fuller's view This issue of GTI is a tour de force on Fullermoney's favourite theme in the last few years - Autonomies. And I am not saying this because of some generous nods in my direction. I have learned a lot from this report; it is 'a keeper' for reference, and in my opinion, one of the most important reports that I am likely to read.
I commend it to all serious investors, and particularly to those who are worried about protecting and growing their capital in a generally unaccustomed global environment. Beautifully written, amusing as well, GTI is also a pleasure to read.