Eoin Treacy's view Veteran subscribers will be familiar with the rhythm of the gold market which was evident between 2001 and 2009. Gold spent a good deal of time ranging, often up to 18 months, before completing the consolidation and surging higher. These breakouts occurred in Septembers of uneven years. (2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009) These powerful multi month rallies were eventually capped with large downward dynamics indicating the beginning of another lengthy consolidation. This progression sped up somewhat from 2009 because upward breaks have occurred on consecutive years since then.

Gold had become overextended by any measure when it peaked above $1900 last September and has spent the last year in a process of consolidation which has been the deepest in nominal terms since the beginning of the more than decade long bull market. Prices have firmed above $1550 over the last three months; holding a progression of incrementally higher reaction lows. Gold is now testing the region of the 200-day MA and a sustained move below $1600 would be required to begin to question potential for additional upside.

Against a background where gold has begun to demonstrate renewed bullish interest and where ETF holdings of the metal are hitting new highs, the NYSE Arca GoldBugs Index / Gold ratio is at an interesting level. It has returned to test the region of the 2008 nadir, from which an impressive gold share rally was initiated, and appears to have found support. A sustained move below 0.25 would be required to question medium-term potential for outperformance by gold shares.

In absolute terms, the GoldBugs Index found support in May near 400 and retested that area in late July. It has almost completely unwound the oversold condition relative to the 200-day MA and a sustained move below 400 would be required to question potential for some additional upside. Newmont Mining, IAMGold, GoldCorp, AngloGold Ashanti, Eldorado Gold, Harmony Gold and GoldFields share a similar pattern over the last six months.

Randgold Resources, New Gold, Coeur d'Alene, Yamana Gold and Agnico-Eagle Mines have had some of the more powerful rallies recently and have pushed back above their respective 200-day MAs. Hecla Mining is one of the most notable because it had previously been a laggard. It rallied to break the 20-month progression of lower rally highs last week and a sustained move below $4 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

Kinross has paused mostly above $7.50 since May, allowing the deeply oversold condition to unwind. However, it will need to sustain a breakout from the current range to confirm a return to demand dominance beyond the short-term.

Barrick Gold extended its decline below the May low and despite its bounce over the last few weeks, it will need to sustain a move above $40 to suggest a return to demand dominance beyond the short term.

Cia Minas Buenaventura broke downwards from a multi-month range three weeks ago and a clear upward dynamic will be required to check momentum beyond a brief pause. Veteran subscribers will be familiar with the rhythm of the gold market which was evident between 2001 and 2009. Gold spent a good deal of time ranging, often up to 18 months, before completing the consolidation and surging higher. These breakouts occurred in Septembers of uneven years. (2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009) These powerful multi month rallies were eventually capped with large downward dynamics indicating the beginning of another lengthy consolidation. This progression sped up somewhat from 2009 because upward breaks have occurred on consecutive years since then.

Gold had become overextended by any measure when it peaked above $1900 last September and has spent the last year in a process of consolidation which has been the deepest in nominal terms since the beginning of the more than decade long bull market. Prices have firmed above $1550 over the last three months; holding a progression of incrementally higher reaction lows. Gold is now testing the region of the 200-day MA and a sustained move below $1600 would be required to begin to question potential for additional upside.

Against a background where gold has begun to demonstrate renewed bullish interest and where ETF holdings of the metal are hitting new highs, the NYSE Arca GoldBugs Index / Gold ratio is at an interesting level. It has returned to test the region of the 2008 nadir, from which an impressive gold share rally was initiated, and appears to have found support. A sustained move below 0.25 would be required to question medium-term potential for outperformance by gold shares.

In absolute terms, the GoldBugs Index found support in May near 400 and retested that area in late July. It has almost completely unwound the oversold condition relative to the 200-day MA and a sustained move below 400 would be required to question potential for some additional upside. Newmont Mining, IAMGold, GoldCorp, AngloGold Ashanti, Eldorado Gold, Harmony Gold and GoldFields share a similar pattern over the last six months.

Randgold Resources, New Gold, Coeur d'Alene, Yamana Gold and Agnico-Eagle Mines have had some of the more powerful rallies recently and have pushed back above their respective 200-day MAs. Hecla Mining is one of the most notable because it had previously been a laggard. It rallied to break the 20-month progression of lower rally highs last week and a sustained move below $4 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

Kinross has paused mostly above $7.50 since May, allowing the deeply oversold condition to unwind. However, it will need to sustain a breakout from the current range to confirm a return to demand dominance beyond the short-term.

Barrick Gold extended its decline below the May low and despite its bounce over the last few weeks, it will need to sustain a move above $40 to suggest a return to demand dominance beyond the short term.

Cia Minas Buenaventura broke downwards from a multi-month range three weeks ago and a clear upward dynamic will be required to check momentum beyond a brief pause.