Gold's new record - It's all about real interest rates
Comment of the Day

July 25 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Gold's new record - It's all about real interest rates

This is a very good interview with Paul Walker of GFMS, conducted by Alec Hogg of Mineweb. Here is a section:
ALEC HOGG: Where to from here? There are the theorists who say that because of QE1, QE2, possibly QE3, quantitative easing and, really, the printing of money, we are building up to a tipping point where gold could absolutely explode. Do you go along with that?

PAUL WALKER: Look, I think there's a possibility of this. It certainly wouldn't be my base case. Those who've been following my pronouncements over the years, I've been on the record as saying, I just believe the monetary and fiscal authorities, sooner or later, have to grasp the nettle here. I think the catalyst for this is not necessarily going to come from them but from the bond market just deciding they won't fund debt at these rates and it will force all of the corrections that should have been allowed to take place, post 2008, balance sheets and so on and so forth. I think this will be forced upon the market by the bond market. That is really the thing that is going to underpin attitudes to gold going forward, is where the yields are. If we see a blowout on yields, that's going to be the turning point for gold but it will take a long time for that to play out. So, the possibility that the fiscal and monetary authorities don't do anything about this, one has to countenance that this is a possibility. Economic history is replete with examples of governments and monetary authorities not grasping the nettle when it's required and then you have Armageddon. In that case, yes, USD2000 gold, USD3000 gold, you wouldn't say it's an impossibility. But one has to, and I still have, belief in the institutions that are out there that sooner or later they are going to have to grasp the nettle and that will start to signal the end of the gold bull rally.

ALEC HOGG: But not in the immediate future?

PAUL WALKER: Well, looking at what's happening in the United States and Europe at the moment, definitely not in the immediate future. I would've argued that 2012 was the turning point but the longer this debacle plays out, the longer you've got a bull market in gold, USD1700, USD1800, you just can't write that off at the moment, until the authorities actually make the hard decisions. The bottom line of all of this, Alec, is something I've repeated countless times over the last few years, you have to have one of the key economic variables that normalises and keeps us all sane and rewards savers, investors and everything, is to have an environment of positive interest rates. Have a look at any period in economic history where you've had a dislocation, where there's been extended periods of low or negative real interest rates and you start to generate problems, inflationary problems, balance sheet problems, asset bubbles, the whole lot and that's where we are today.

My view - I certainly agree with this.

David Fuller's view I certainly agree with this.

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