Gold shares
Comment of the Day

April 06 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Gold shares

Eoin Treacy's view With gold breaking above $1450 yesterday and the NYSE ARCA Goldbugs Index surging to a new all time high I thought it might be instructive to review the Index's constituents. (Also see Comment of the Day on February 4th).

IAMGold
has been a leader in the sector; breaking upwards to new highs two months ago. It has been consolidating above $20 since and hit a new closing high yesterday. The medium-term upside can continue to be given the benefit of the doubt provided the break above $20 is sustained.

$50 has proved a psychological barrier for AngloGold Ashanti since 2006 but it broke above it this week and a sustained move below $43 would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

GoldCorp shares a relatively similar pattern with the Index and also moved to a new high yesterday. Barrick Gold has held an almost unbroken progression of higher major reaction lows since late 2008 and is now testing its peak.

Newmont Mining, Agnico-Eagle Mines, Eldorado Gold Corp and Compania de Minas Buenaventura, hit medium-term peaks last year and remain in short-term downtrends. They will have to break their progressions of lower rally highs to indicate a return to medium-term demand dominance. Randgold Resources had a similar pattern but has rallied impressively this week to break its almost six-month downtrend and re-establish medium-term demand dominance.

Gold Fields has one of the more consistent chart patterns. It has been consolidating above $15 since October and is now testing the upper side of its range.

Coeur d-Alene broke above $30 a month ago, consolidated the move and hit a new high today. A break back below $30 would be required to begin to question medium-term upside potential.

New Gold Inc, found support in the region of the 200-day MA from January and rallied impressively. It is now quite overextended relative to the MA but a sustained move below $9.25 would be required to check current scope for additional upside.

Both Yamana Gold and Kinross remain rangebound but have firmed of late and appear likely to at least test the upper side of their respective 2-year congestion areas. Harmony Gold completed a lengthy consolidation three weeks ago and a sustained move below $12 would be required to check medium-term upside potential.

Hecla Mining has completed a reversion towards the 200-day MA and is currently rallying from $8. A sustained move below that area would be required to check medium-term upside potential.

The majority of the above shares appear likely to perform well provided gold continues to hold above $1400. IAMgold remains a leader while Gold Fields has one of the more attractive chart patterns.

Back to top