Good investing prospects in emerging markets
Comment of the Day

July 30 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Good investing prospects in emerging markets

Thanks to a subscriber for this article quoting Mark Mobius from The Star online of Malaysia. Here is a section:
Number one, because of its resources. Number two, because of its strategic location between the oil markets and the Middle East and the rest of Asia. Three, the population. You've got half a billion people. Number four, tremendous agricultural and mineral resources. Number five, talented hardworking people. So you've got a tremendous growth potential. And the trade among the Asean group is growing at a very rapid pace.

We like commodities and we like consumers. Consumers as in retailing, clothing, food, supermarkets, you name it. Anything to do with consumers, because consumers in South-East Asia are getting richer. They are buying more fashionable things. For example, I like Giordano. I like Giordano because it's cheap and it fits me very nicely. I was in Thailand yesterday in a Giordano shop. They had medium size. I put it on, and I got stuck! Their design is incredible, and so is their price. But this is just an example. I'm not saying I'm buying Giordano or anything. I'm just saying that I'm using it as an example of what can be done in Asia in terms of value design and marketing. That's the kind of thing we are looking for in Malaysia. Companies like that, that can deliver products at a good price, nice value and with good distribution.

You can see a lot of Malaysian brands coming up in the market. And being more international and regional.

Eoin Treacy's view The outperformance of the ASEAN region and the global consumer sector has been apparent since the 2008 and 2009 lows. In defiance of the malaise which has affected other assets the emergence of the global consumer theme has moved from strength to strength. Even during times of market stress over the last few years this theme has fallen less and bounced back earlier than the wider market. Globally oriented companies leveraged to the growth of the consuming class are well represented in our list of Autonomies. However, individual country indices also reflect this theme.

Malaysia is one of only a handful of markets to hit a new high this year. It found support in the region of the 200-day MA from mid-May and has held a progression of higher reaction lows since. While mildly overbought in the very short-term a sustained move below the MA, currently near 1560, would be required to begin to question medium-term scope for additional upside. The Philippines outperformed by a considerable margin earlier this year but has a similar pattern since May. Thailand also has a similar pattern.

Indonesia has been mostly rangebound since August but has retained an upward bias. It found support in the region of the 200-day Ma from early June and has returned to retest the highs above 4000. A sustained move below 3900 would be required to check medium-term scope for additional upside.

Singapore continues to pause in the region of 3000 which markets the upper side of this year's range and the lower side of last year's. Provided it continues to hold the short-term progression of higher reaction lows, the benefit of the doubt can continue to be given to the upside.

Vietnam remains the regional laggard and will need to break its progression of lower rally highs to suggest a return to demand dominance.

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