That said, the plan hinges on a robust economy, said Mantzarvas. Almost half the reductions in non-performing mortgages and bad business loans are slated to come in the second half of 2019. The structure is designed to provide enough time for a recovery to lift the country’s fortunes. That could be a gamble given the fundamental weaknesses in Greece’s economy, which has shrunk by a quarter since 2008.

Moreover, if European officials and the IMF can’t reach an agreement with Athens, Greece may not receive a vital payment from the rescue package. That would be a severe blow for a country that still can’t borrow from bond markets at affordable rates. And the clock is ticking: Greece must pay about 6 billion euros in sovereign bond principal by July.

The memories of the brush with “Grexit” in 2015 are still fresh, and a new crisis could fan populist anger across Europe just as French voters are going to the polls in April and May, and before German elections in September.

For all their efforts, the Greek banks don’t control their own fate. The politics around the country’s bailout are what’s shaping their immediate future. As negotiations take place in Athens, veteran bankers are hoping for the best.

“The review has to close soon because delays will hold back the spending and investment activity that the economy needs,” said Michalis Sallas, the former executive chairman of Piraeus. “We won’t get the sense that we’re out of the crisis until the review is done.”

Eoin Treacy's view

The timing for when Greece is next due to run out of money represents a serious inconvenience for Angela Merkel’s re-election campaign, At the end of July, the European silly season will be in full swing, millions of people will be getting ready for holidays and by the time they get back in September it will be difficult to get anyone to change their minds ahead of the election in October. Against that background it is Germany’s interests for the EU to come to an agreement with the IMF about what to do about Greece’s debt and ability to repay sooner rather than later. That’s quite apart from the Dutch election later this month and the French election next month. 

The Euro is back testing the $1.05 level against the Dollar and the most important thing on the weekly chart is that it failed in the region of the trend mean last month. The big question now is to what extent the January low near $1.03 will offer support. It is certainly for the bulls to prove their willingness to engage within the next two cents or bears will be emboldened to seek an additional down leg. 

In 2015 the devaluation of the Euro was represented in the nominal appreciation of the region’s stock markets and investors will be paying close attention to the possibility of that eventuality playing out again now. 

Even the Portuguese market which has been among the bloc’s most depressed is now testing its progression of lower rally highs and the region of the trend mean. The country’s largest utility, EDP and the US listed Global X MSCI Portugal ETF share similar patterns with the country index.