Greek contagion fears spread to other EU banks
Moody's on Wednesday placed BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole and Société Générale on review for a possible downgrade, citing the potential for "inconsistency" between the impact of a Greek default or restructuring and their current rating levels.
"Following the deterioration of Greece's creditworthiness, although still manageable, the risk is likely to have increased for certain banks," said Nick Hill, analyst at Moody's Investors Service.
"This results from both the direct effects of a potential default and the secondary effects, in terms of a potential deterioration of Greek private sector credit."
Eoin Treacy's view The Euro
Stoxx Banks Index has fallen to test the June and December 2010 lows near
150 and the consistent medium-term downtrend remains intact. There is potential
for some steadying in this area but a sustained move above 166 would be required
to break the five-month progression of lower rally highs and indicate more than
temporary support in this area. None of the above mentioned French banks have
fallen to the same extent as the sector index.
The sovereign
debt crisis on the Eurozone's periphery has been in motion for more than year.
The ECB has made limitless funds available to banks in an attempt to help them
shore up their balance sheets. Institutions have been given ample time to at
least hedge, if not divest, their holdings of Greek, Irish and Portuguese debt.
The fact that bond yields have been rallying so sharply suggests that an increasing
number are choosing the latter option. .
The primary
questions in my mind is who will be left holding this debt if a default cannot
be avoided and who has been writing CDS contracts on this debt. In attempting
to answer these questions I've seen articles in German, Swiss and US newspapers
each accusing the other of harbouring institutions which have been writing CDS
on Greek debt. There is no doubt that writing CDS contracts has been a lucrative
pursuit for the last year but one can only hope that those pursuing this strategy
are hedging at least some of their exposure.
I do
not know to what extent AIG has any involvement
with the Eurozone's debt crisis. However, its decline since January
has a great deal in common with the Euro Stoxx Banks Index above.
The result
of a Chart Library High/Low Filter for the European Financial sector has 64
of the 102 instruments in the group making at least new 3-month lows in the
last five days. Unione di Banche Italiane,
Unipol, Banca
Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Allied Irish
Bank and Banco Comercial Portugues
are all making new lows. In Germany Commerzbank
is also notably weak. We have no way of knowing if these banks have any particular
exposure to Greek debt but they are leading to the downside for a reason.