Perhaps most important is the fact that on a nominal basis, the Total of Brazilian Bank Loans Outstanding remains relatively small. When adjusting for the difference between the population in Brazil, and that of the US, Brazil?s Total Bank Loans Outstanding is pegged at US "equivalent of $1.62 trillion (USD), or, just 24% of Total US Commercial Bank Loans Outstanding.

Despite the relatively low nominal level, the long-term overlay chart on display below is impressive nonetheless, as we compare the growth in Brazilian Bank Credit (black line) to that in the US (red line).

Looks like … Fat Tuesday in Brazil, and Ash Wednesday in the US !!!

David Fuller's view I asked Greg Weldon if I could post this issue of his Money Monitor letter because it contains insights and a number of excellent historic graphs which I have not seen elsewhere. This is good, informative research, likely to be of interest to many subscribers.

It has been easy to ignore Brazil as a leading investment candidate over the last 15 months, during which its stock market has ranged sideways beneath its 2008 peak. Rising inflation, tightening money policy and capital controls on foreign investment in an attempt to prevent the Brazilian real from appreciating further against the US dollar are not incentives in the investment global beauty contest.

However, I agree with Greg Weldon that further appreciation by the real is all but inevitable and that this will be positive for the Brazilian stock market, given some respite from inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, valuations have continued to improve, with the Bovespa Index currently selling at 11.89 times historic earnings and a dividend yield of 3.19%, according to Bloomberg.

Anticipating breakouts from broad trading ranges can be difficult without a commonality factor, which fortunately we have. Most resources markets have shown relative strength recently, led by Russia, Norway and Thailand, while Canada is testing last month's highs.

Resources remain a Fullermoney secular theme which is back in form, albeit somewhat overextended as we can see from this chart of the Continuous Commodity Index (Old CRB). Brazil is too attractive to be left behind indefinitely and I would not be surprised to see an upside breakout over the medium term.