We believe estimated prevalence is the best measure of the overall cancer market’s size. We have estimated future prevalence for 2014-2018 (Tables 3, 6, 9). To arrive at these estimates, we used the 2012 or 2013 estimate and added estimated incidence (Tables 1, 4, 7) and subtracted estimated deaths (Tables 2, 5, 8) for each year. Exceptions included cancers that did not have prevalence data for 2012 or 2013. In cases where 2013 prevalence was not available for US patients, we used the 2009 prevalence estimate for 2013 or the incidence estimate. For these same exceptions outside the United States, we estimated 2012 or 2013 prevalence as a ratio to incidence that was consistent with US data.

Based on prevalence, we estimate the overall market for cancer therapies in the United States is slightly over 14 million patients growing at 7% per year. In Europe, we estimate the overall market is composed of 8 million patients and is growing at 16% per year. In Japan, we estimate the market is nearly 2 million patients and is growing 13% per year. We believe incidence is the best measure of front-line (newly treated) cancer market’s size (Tables 1, 4, 7). Therefore, we conclude the market for front-line therapies in the US is currently 2 million patients and is decreasing at 8% per year. In Europe, we estimate the market for front-line therapies is approximately 3.1 million patients and is growing at 4.5% per year. In Japan, we estimate the market for front-line therapies is currently 680,000 patients and is growing at 2% per year.

We believe the best measure of the market size for second-line and greater (relapsed/refractory) therapies is prevalence less incidence, which should account for all living patients who are not newly diagnosed. Therefore, we conclude the market for relapsed therapies in the US is currently 15 million patients and is growing at 10% per year. In Europe, we estimate the market for relapsed therapies is approximately 10.8 million patients and is growing at 11% per year. In Japan, we estimate the market for relapsed therapies is currently 2.1 million patients and is growing at 8% per year.

Eoin Treacy's view

Here is a link to the full report.

Cancer is a blight on humanity. Because it is based on what is in many respects a random mutation of genes, it avoids notice by the body’s immune system. The net result is that there are many different types of cancer but even within individual groups no two are the same. That represents an acute challenge for drug therapies because while the total market is large, individual therapies are required to treat every patient. Therefore personalised medicine is likely to emerge first in cancer treatment which means oncology represents an important market to monitor.

The Nasdaq Biotech Index has held the majority of its advance from the 2011 base breakout and is now firming from the region of the trend mean. A sustained move below 3000 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

The Loncar Cancer Immunotherapy ETF represents a more targeted play on the sector and has held a progression of higher reaction lows, within its yearlong range, since February.