GS Tactical Flow-of-Funds
Thanks to a subscriber for this note from Goldman Sachs which may be of interest. Here is a section:
1. OpEx - March (3/17) Option Expiry: $2.8 Trillion Notional to un-clench GAMMA (also quarter-end gamma). This is a big number. This removes the 4k pinner, that has kept a lid on big moves. Either way. We are going to move next week.
2. Peak open corporate repurchase window. The corporate buyback blackout window begins on 3/16, where 40% of US corporates will be in the blackout window. This window ends of 4/28. Reminder corporate authorizations have been an all-time high YTD. There will be a decline in vwap purchases during the closed window. We expect executions to drop by ~30% during the closed window.
Here is a link to the full repoort.
This is one of the better fund flow reports I have seen. Share buybacks have been among the biggest sources of new demand for stocks over the last year and have been a fundamental support for prices over the last decade.
As uptrend consistency deteriorates it is no coincidence that demand from buybacks will likely contribute to underperformance over the next six weeks.
The Invesco Buyback Achievers ETF dropped through the 200-day MA this week and a clear upward dynamic would be required to question scope for a further test of underlying trading.
The weakness in bitcoin is also because of forced selling as Silvergate liquidated its balance sheet. The price is unlikely to find support until that process has been completed.
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