Guarulhos Project Determining Rousseff Rebound
Comment of the Day

February 05 2013

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Guarulhos Project Determining Rousseff Rebound

This article by Christiana Sciaudone for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section
The concessions to run Galeao airport in Rio de Janeiro and Confins in Minas Gerais state are set to be auctioned in late September. Infraero, the state-run airport operator that had run Guarulhos until the privatization, will hold a stake in all airports being sold.

Brazil will also privatize the operations of ports, railways and roads this year. GRU Airport, which is investing 6 billion reais in the facility, also plans to boost parking spots almost fivefold by 2032, double plane slots to 118 by next year, open four hotels and connect the buildings with a light-rail line, said Ritzmann, the CIO.

The deadline for the initial Guarulhos is approaching fast: World Cup games kick off in less than 17 months. “At Guarulhos Airport, everything is done in half the time -- it has to be,” Ritzmann said. “We will deliver this project on time.”

Eoin Treacy's view My view – Whether Brazil's public-private partnerships offer value for investors has been an issue since President Rousseff took office and has impeded the speed with which projects are completed. However, despite the potentially dubious returns for investors, the important medium to long-term point is that infrastructure development is occurring. It is to be hoped that the privatisation of ports, airports, roads and railways will help to free the bottlenecks that persist in Brazil's economy and ease the way for additional growth.

In Comment of the Day on December 10th , I posted a quote from the Brazilian central bank that there was “a little fat” in the exchange rate. Since then the Real has advanced from more than BRL2.1 to below BRL2. As the rate tests the region of the 200-day MA, the question is whether the Real will be allowed to strengthen further. The weakness of the currency has been a headwind from the perspective of foreign investors since 2011 because of inflationary fears. The opposite of course has been true of Japan recently where deflation has prevailed for so long. Some further steadying of the Real would likely act as a catalyst for increased investor interest.

The Bovespa Index has been ranging with a mild upward bias since its August lows. It is currently testing the region 60,000 region. A clear upward dynamic will be required to suggest a return to demand dominance.

Back to top